'Major quake may rock Delhi in April'

By K. Kannan

NEW DELHI, JAN. 27. A major quake might again rock the country in April with disastrous consequences for the capital, a seismologist working at the Jawaharlal Nehru University here has warned.

Basing his observations on the continuously-rising sunspots, Dr. Soumitra Mukherjee of the School of Environmental Sciences, said there was ``a sudden increase in solar energy on January 24 before the quake stuck on Friday. In April 2001, this energy will reach its peak.''

This alarming prediction is based on a thesis that sudden increase in ``coronal mass'' ejection (solar energy), measured by rising sunspots, could initiate active fault areas, resulting in earthquakes. An analysis of previous earthquakes has corroborated this theory.

Dr. Mukherjee said that every 11 years, the sun underwent a major period of activity, called the solar maximum, followed by a period of quiet called the solar minimum. During the solar maximum, there are many sun spots, solar flares and coronal mass ejection, all of which affect communications and weather.

Arguing that such correlationship had been observed during previous incidents, Dr. Mukherjee said the Maharashtra earthquake of November 17, 2000 and the one in Kerala in the beginning of the year were the most recent examples. The Delhi earthquake of November 2000 also occurred during the period of solar maximum.

The earthquake which hit Delhi on November 29 and measured 2.9 on the Richter scale could be regarded as a ``pre- shock'', Dr. Mukherjee said. ``Wherever major earthquakes have occurred, they have occurred subsequent to similar pre-shocks.''

Dr. Mukherjee, who is working on a Department of Science and Technology (DST)-funded project for ``Re-Evaluation of Seismogenic Potentiality of Delhi-Rohtak Area'' using satellite imagery data, said the reading on the wall was clear - time is running out for the capital and if emergency studies are not initiated, it may become too late.

The capital trans-Yamuna area would be the worst hit in the event of an earthquake. ``Before earthquakes, there occurs a phenomenon known as liquefaction, in which water from porous areas comes out leading to collapse of buildings. Since the rate of sedimentation in the Yamuna riverbed is also quite high (4,000 mg/sq. cm.), it is but natural that it will be the worst hit.''

According to him, a radical change in the surface manifestation in the form of active lineaments, coupled with vegetation anomalies in some parts of the Delhi-Rohtak region, was further pushing the National Capital Region (NCR) up the ladder of seismicity.

In Delhi, it has been conclusively proved that there are areas with active fault lines - one, the Delhi-Hardwar-Harsil ridge which goes up to Uttarkashi, and another, a hidden fracture from Assola to Bahadurgarh perpendicular to it. Based on a geo- chemical soil analysis, it has been concluded that there are chances of it being an active fault.

Vegetation anomalies have also been found in the Delhi-Rohtak region, leading to a re-evaluation of the seismogenic potentiality. ``The vegetation anomalies near Jhajhar are very high,'' Dr. Mukherjee said.

Moreover, there was a 40-year seismic gap in the Indian rocks depending upon the movement of the crustal blocks.

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