The Hindu : Erdogan election, a cause for cheer to U.S.?

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Thursday, Mar 13, 2003

International

International

Erdogan election, a cause for cheer to U.S.?

By Atul Aneja

MANAMA March 12. Braving growing pressure from the U.S., Turkey is likely to take some more time before allowing Washington to open a second front from its territory against Iraq.

According to sources, the new Prime Minster, Recep Erdogan, has to contend with time-consuming procedures before re-introducing a resolution in the Turkish Parliament that can allow the U.S. to station and transit its forces into northern Iraq.

Sources pointed out that Mr. Erdogan has to take two crucial steps before he can attend to the persistent U.S. demand .

Mr. Erdogan will first have to submit a list of Cabinet Ministers of the new Government to the President. This can be done fairly quickly and a functional government is expected to be in place in a couple of days. But the second step, which involves the presentation and approval of a government programme, is expected to take around a week's time. The government resolution on Iraq, which also includes and approval for the Turkish forces to enter Iraqi territory along with the U.S. forces is, therefore, likely to wait, before this process is concluded. Sources clarified that Mr. Erdogan is not considering denying the U.S. request. Mr. Erdogan is unlikely to confront the Chief of Staff of the Turkish military, Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, who has already declared publicly that the U.S. forces should be allowed to open a second front in northern Iraq.

Mr. Erdogan may also seek the passage of the resolution to safeguard Turkey's own security interests. Analysts point out that Turkish forces under the watchful eye of the U.S. troops can enter northern Iraq only if Parliament approves this motion.

Any unilateral movement of Turkish forces in large numbers is likely to face resistance from ethnic Kurds, who have already declared that they would confront a Turkish military drive into northern Iraq. Turkish security planers are extremely keen that Turkish troops are positioned in northern Iraq. Otherwise they fear that the Kurds, who are also allies of the United States, can, in the heat of battle, take physical control over the oil cities of Mosul and Kirkuk.

Sources pointed out that the recent budget that has been passed in Turkey has brought home the point that the Turkish people are likely o face considerable economic hardship, unless they receive a hefty bailout package from abroad.While Turkey goes through its motions, the U.S. which is increasingly impatient to begin a war against Iraq may have no option but to wait a little while longer before unleashing a two front attack against Iraq. Otherwise, it would have to launch an attack on Iraq from the southern Kuwaiti side and risk suffering higher casualties, till the Turkish launch pad is ready for use.

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