Wednesday, Feb 12, 2003
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By Sridhar Krishnaswami
The new resolution, which is likely to be co-sponsored by Britain, will find Iraq to be in "material breach'' of the demands and obligations and will seek authorisation of the use military force to bring about peace and security. Diplomats and officials here and in New York are basically making the point that while Washington and London can go about the new resolution in the manner they wished, ultimately, it depends on whether the other permanent members such as Russia, China and France — all opposed to military action against Iraq — will exercise their veto or choose to abstain. In that event, the United States will be looking for nine votes in the 15-member Council. The other scenario is the extent of the determination of the U.S. That is, despite the maximum diplomatic pressure if France, Russia or China veto the new resolution, is the Bush administration planning to go about on its own with its so-called coalition of the willing to disarm Iraq as it has been saying all along? If what senior officials of the administration have been saying in the last one week is anything to go by, Washington is determined for a showdown with or without the backing of traditional allies and friends in the Council. That Washington is fast losing patience with the evolving scheme of things is evident from the manner in which it responded to the latest Iraqi "offer'' of allowing surveillance flights of the American U-2s. "Iraq needs to disarm and the reason why we even need to fly U-2 flights is because they're not disarming. This is a man who is trying to stall for time. He's trying to play a diplomatic game'', the President, George W. Bush, said. Against the backdrop of what is taking place in Washington, New York and European capitals, it is clear that what the top weapons inspectors tell the Security Council this Friday will make the difference between further diplomacy and a military showdown. Hans Blix of the United Nations Monitoring,Verification and Inspection Commission will have to come out and specifically make the point that Iraq has started cooperating on the "substance'' of disarmament, not merely scoring points on the process part of its obligations under resolution 1441. That a country like the U.S. might not be still impressed is a different matter and a different ballgame. Mr. Bush took note of the widening rift between America and its allies in Europe and commented on France, Germany and Belgium blocking NATO from planning for the defence of Turkey in the event of a war with Iraq. "France has been a long time friend of the United States. We've got a lot in common. But I think their decision at NATO is short-sighted, in my judgement. I hope they'll reconsider'', Mr. Bush.
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