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ON WEDNESDAY, Sri Lanka will vote to choose a Government for the second time in 14 months, but there are no indications yet that the election will in any way resolve the political instability in the strife-torn island.

In the run-up to the election, brought on by the ruling People's Alliance loss of majority in Parliament after less than a year in power, one theme dominated the debate and could impact powerfully on the outcome: the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, a non-participant in the election, but present in it right through.

The Opposition United National Party (UNP) tried hard to keep the focus on the Government's failings, including its inability to guide the economy.

But the PA, finding itself on the mat on every major issue of governance, successfully hijacked the debate by resorting to the time-tested tactic of using communal rhetoric to appeal to the Sinhala majority.

The main burden of this rhetoric has been the allegation of a ``secret pact'' between the UNP and the LTTE, and that if voted to power the UNP would hand over vast portions of the country to the LTTE.

The repeated use of this propaganda by the PA, starting with the presidential election in 1999, has served only to reinforce in the popular Sinhala psyche the mistaken notion that the island's ethnic problem equals the LTTE.

This time, the PA has the assistance of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, its main ally in the last months of its short-lived Government, in beating the majoritarian drum.

The UNP denied the accusations of a ``secret pact'', but was unable to divert the focus back to what it considered its main plank in these elections - ending the war and putting the country's economy back on the rails.

The cumulative result of the PA-JVP propaganda has been a complete erosion of minority faith in the President, Ms. Chandrika Kumaratunga.

It has given new strength to the LTTE-brand of Tamil nationalism, and left those against the LTTE voiceless.

But as she fights to retain the Sinhala vote, this does not seem to have overly worried Ms. Kumaratunga.

Articulating the LTTE agenda in these elections is the Tamil National Alliance, a grouping of four Tamil parties, contesting the elections in the north and the east.

In a post-election scenario in which neither the PA or the UNP is able to win a simple majority in the 225-seat Parliament - a real possibility considering that while there is resentment against the Government, there is no simultaneous pro-Opposition wave - the TNA and the JVP are expected to play crucial roles.

From the way in which the campaign was conducted, it is widely expected that the JVP, which is hoping to improve its performance in this election, will lend critical support to the PA if it seems likely to have the better chance to form the next Government.

On the other hand, the UNP has few friends outside itself, which could prove to be a drawback if it is to make a pitch for government formation.

There are indications that the TNA, whose constituent parties have declared their dissatisfaction with the PA Government, might offer assistance.

Last week's appeal to the Sinhala electorate by the LTTE leader, Mr. Velupillai Prabakaran, not to vote for Ms. Kumaratunga, is a clear direction to the Tamils that there has to be a change of Government.

But the important question here is whether the UNP, for all its pre-election generosity of promising unconditional talks with the LTTE, and offering to consider removing the ban on it, would want the backing of the TNA which would be remote-controlled by the ruthless guerilla group.

Candidates of the TNA have claimed LTTE support as they canvassed for votes in the northeast.

One candidate even said that all those seeking election on the TNA ticket were Tigers. It is only to be expected that after the elections, the LTTE will demand returns from those elected using its name.

But even if it does form the Government, either on its own as its supporters believe, or with the help of the TNA, the UNP still has to contend with Ms. Kumaratunga, who will continue to remain President. She was re-elected to office for a six-year term in 1999.

In fact, an important side-show in this election has been the PA warning the people that if they vote in the UNP, they can expect a deadlocked Government, as under the Constitution all power is vested with the Executive President.

Parliament cannot function as an independent or alternate power centre, the PA and its allies have been saying. And some have even warned of another election if that happens.

Against this background of uncertainties and fractious politics, it seems unlikely that this election will resolve any of the major issues facing Sri Lanka today, including the ethnic problem.

In fact, judging from the run-up, it may leave the country more polarised than before along political and communal lines with the important players unable to extricate themselves from the traps created by their own election-time rhetoric.

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