One land, too many players

B. Muralidhar Reddy

HISTORY HAS a habit of repeating itself, lest we forget. Bonn was born as the capital of West Germany after the victors of World War II carved Germany into smaller, less-menacing bits. On Monday, the city plays host to a similar set of victors to settle the future of another vanquished nation. Never mind if the resolution of the Afghan crisis proves much more complicated and, the negotiations, amid so many internal and external players, incomparably tougher.

The Taliban has retreated, but as they are saying here and in capitals where the battle against the militia was launched, the war in Afghanistan is far from over. If die-hard supporters here say the Taliban's withdrawal is but a tactical move, others keenly watch as the ``war against terror'' turns into a ``war for Afghanistan''. The rugged Afghan terrain still provides dramatic picture ops of bombings and surrenders, even as the endgame shifts to another theatre where the various Afghan power centres of any repute, of course sans the Taliban, gather with their mighty Western allies.

The time has come to split the pie and everyone who is anyone appears to be lining up for a slice. All in the name of the common people of Afghanistan. One wonders where these players were when the common Afghans were suffering under one repressive regime after the other, none of which could govern the land or administer the people in the real sense of the term.

On paper it is the United Nations which is the official sponsor of the conference in Bonn. But in reality, the United States and all those who have invested heavily in the war against the Taliban are the real players. This is evident from the way events have unfolded in Afghanistan in the last few days, particularly after the Taliban's retreat.

All moves by the various actors are supposedly in the name of the U.N. but it appears that the U.N. resolutions which sanctioned strikes against the Taliban have been forgotten. Within hours of the Taliban vacating the Afghan capital, the Northern Alliance troops not only marched into the city but put themselves in the seat of power. The U.S. and its allies pretended that the Alliance had moved in without their consent.

The pulls and pressures on the U.N. on the proposed talks in Bonn are all evident. To be attended by leaders of Afghanistan's ethnic and political groups, the aim of the conference is to forge an interim government in the strife-torn country. According to Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi, the U.N. Secretary-General's special representative in Afghanistan, the meeting will be attended by four ``processes'' who have been convinced to come together to form a single process.

These are - the Northern Alliance, a mostly non-Pashtun Afghan grouping which spearheaded the land offensive against the Taliban and which now controls Kabul; the Rome Process that centres round former king Zahir Shah; the recent Pakistan-sponsored Peshawar Convention composed of Pakistan- cultivated Pashtun leaders; and the Cyprus group which includes Afghan refugees and Diaspora.

Diplomats from the U.S., Britain and Russia will be present while Germany will not be displeased with being given the honour of hosting a major though hurriedly called conference as it seeks to up its world profile.

While Mr. Brahimi will be in charge, Washington is to send its envoy to Afghanistan, Mr. James Dobbins, and Moscow will despatch Mr. Zamir Kabulov, who has had some experience in dealing with that country. It is an endeavour towards exploration of formation of ``broad-based and multi- ethnic'' transitional government in Kabul.

In fact, the search for an acceptable and representative government in a post-Taliban Afghanistan began almost along with the October 7 bomb attacks. And, with the fall of Mazar-i-Sharif, the activities for a broadbased government gained further momentum. The aim was to plug the power-vacuum in Kabul as quickly as possible. But after Mazar- i-Sharif fell and the Taliban fled the capital, the worst fears about a vacuum came true. The Northern Alliance leader, Gen. Mohammad Fahim. instantaneously set up the former President, Mr. Burhanuddin Rabbani, of Tajik origin, in the seat of power. Within three days, Mr. Rabbani not only declared himself the President but also gave enough indications that the former King, Zahir Shah, had no place in the new scheme of things.

The U.N.'s grand plans of cobbling together a broadbased and acceptable setup in Kabul suffered a serious setback when, at one stage, Mr. Rabbani described the proposed Bonn conference as being only of ``symbolic significance''. The U.S. and its allies then averted a showdown by persuading the Northern Alliance to support the U.N. venture. The drama preceding the Bonn meet only underscores the pitfalls ahead and the serious challenges involved.

Amidst all the jockeying on Afghanistan, the frontline state, Pakistan, was crying for Pashtun representation and the West was exhorting the Northern Alliance not to enter Kabul. Diplomats and negotiators from all over the world began arriving in Kabul even as the Northern Alliance expressed reservations about the presence of Western troops, British soldiers in particular, on Afghan soil.

The outcome of the Bonn meet would be as important as the commitment of the various players, visible and invisible, to translate it into reality. Given the harsh realities of Afghanistan in the last two and half decades, Bonn could at the most be a small step in the process of accomplishing a Herculean task.

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