Kashmir at the crossroads

Shujaat Bukhari

THE fallout of the Taliban's debacle in Afghanistan is bound to have its impact over the next phase of the armed struggle in Jammu and Kashmir. Taken over by the jehadi form of militancy in recent years, the Kashmiri movement for ``azadi'' is likely to witness many changes in the backdrop of the international war against terror, though the linkage is yet to be established despite India's hard-hitting campaign. Before the fall of Kabul to Afghanistan's Northern Alliance, the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee's talks with the U.S. President, Mr. George W. Bush, were a repeat of America's generalised concern about India's clamour over ``terror in its own land'. Washington's advice to New Delhi to exercise restraint in ``hitting training camps in Pakistan'' and to resolve the Kashmir problem in accordance with the wishes of the people must have come as a ``big shock'' for those formulating India's Kashmir policy since the September 11 strikes in the U.S.

Without a defined agenda on Kashmir which would suit Indian interests, the Bush administration has acknowledged Pakistan's wholehearted support in uprooting the Taliban regime in Kabul. The U.S., which is completely involved in the Afghanistan affairs, hardly has a point to make on Kashmir at the moment. India's proximity to the U.S. in the recent past, which it has been trying to utilise against Pakistan and its ``cross-border terrorism'' have taken a back seat. Even Russia had urged India to resume the dialogue with Pakistan on Kashmir, which was seen as another diplomatic ``setback'' to the Vajpayee Government.

In Kashmir, the developments in Afghanistan have pushed the militants to the wall, even demoralised their ranks. There have been no reaction from any of the militant leaders except for a statement from the Lashkar-e-Taiba chief, Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, on the Taliban's ``meek withdrawal'' from Kabul. Analysts feel the psychological effect of the fall of Kabul to the Northern Alliance will reshape Kashmir's 13-year-old guerilla struggle, which till now had the full support of Pakistan, its Inter- Services Intelligence, the Taliban and other Islamic networks.

The militancy in the State assumed an entirely new dimension essentially after 1996. In 1994 and 1995, counter-insurgents, who had switched loyalties towards India, struck in a big way to demolish the pro-Pakistan militant setup, resulting in a deadly backlash from the hardcore militants. The ``onslaught'' of the pro-India outfits against the pro-Pakistan groups made the elections of 1996 (both Lok Sabha and Assembly) possible in the State. The brunt was faced by none else than the Hizb-ul- Mujahideen and the unarmed cadre of the Jamaat-e-Islami. The ``ruthless'' operation against the Jamaat cadre jointly by the pro-India outfits and the security forces forced the Jamaat chief, Mr. G. M. Bhat, to declare that the party was never involved in militancy.

Then came the phase of the militancy in which, according to security officials as also independent observers, over 60 per cent of the militants were foreigners, including volunteers from Pakistan, Sudan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Iran, Algeria, England and some other countries. Organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and the Jaish-e-Mohammad identified themselves with the brand of struggle the Taliban was pursuing in Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda and groups such as the Palestinian Hamas were supposedly the inspiration for young people taking to the gun in Kashmir. Pakistan's ISI provided the outfits with material support and facilitated the entry of its cadre into Kashmir. There was an unconfirmed report that the Harkat had a training camp in Khost, Afghanistan. According to another unconfirmed report, of the around 500 militants killed by the U.S. strikes in Mazar-i-Sharif since October 7 this year, many were from Kashmir. ``The emotional connection between the Taliban and those fighting in Kashmir has been exemplary'' said an analyst adding outfits such as the Hizb were pushed to the back seat.

As the next move by the U.S. is awaited, whether it pushes Pakistan to change the stand on Kashmir militancy, the ouster of the Taliban is seen as a psychological setback to the militancy in Kashmir. ``It will demoralise the militants who had been looking towards the Taliban as a pillar of Islamic movements,'' said a senior police officer. However, there are many in the security setup who do not rule out Kashmir being a destination for the fleeing Taliban cadres.

``The militancy in Kashmir will dwindle,'' says Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami, CPI(M) MLA. Mr. Ahmed Ali Fayaz, a senior journalist, feels the Taliban's ouster will have a shattering effect on the militancy in the State. ``It is not the manpower but the psychology which matters in such movements.''

In Kashmir, anti-U.S. feelings were confined to protests in Kashmir University and statements from groups such as the Dukhtaran-e-Millat or the Jamiatul Mujahideen. The Hurriyat Conference openly supported Gen. Pervez Musharraf's line but the militants enforced a complete strike.

But, for the chairman of All-Party Hurriyat Conference, Prof. Abdul Gani Butt, the changed scenario in Afghanistan will open ways for resolution of many political problems including the Kashmir dispute. ``The impact will be positive in terms of a solution to all political problems like Kashmir, Palestine, Chechnya which constitute a threat to peace.''

With no doubts over the capability of the militants to strike at will, as they did on October 1 outside the State Assembly, the situation in Kashmir is likely to witness rapid changes in the days ahead. But some observers believe that militancy or no militancy, Hurriyat or no Hurriyat, a vested interest which has developed over a period of time will continue to play an important role in the State. The incidents of shops burnt by Special Operations Group personnel in Tral, or the firing on protesters by the Army in Haigam and above all the wrong policies of New Delhi will continue to sustain the militancy.

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