India monitoring developments

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, NOV. 17. While monitoring the current developments in Afghanistan, India is veering round to the view that a successful anti-Taliban rebellion in the south may be crucial for bringing durable stability to the strife-torn nation.

Highly-placed sources in the security establishment said the Northern Alliance which has established a presence in Kabul, is unlikely to spearhead an anti-Taliban campaign further into southern Afghanistan.

Instead, with the exception of the eastern city of Jalalabad, the United States, as of now, appears to be hedging its bets on a Pashtun-led rebellion in the southern provinces to scatter the Taliban out of any political reckoning in the future of Afghanistan.

A successful anti-Taliban rebellion is likely to throw up credible Pashtun leaders. These leaders, it is envisaged, can then negotiate a power sharing deal with the Northern Alliance which mainly includes ethnic minorities. Such a development, the sources said, will help in the emergence of a broad-based multi- ethnic government in Afghanistan. The broad framework of this arrangement is likely to find favour with Afghanistan's neighbouring countries, except Pakistan which is unlikely to find many friends within the ranks of the anti-Taliban Pashtuns.

The U.S., according to sources, is depending on the forces of Hamid Karzai, former Deputy Foreign Minister of Afghanistan, to foment an anti-Taliban rebellion among the Popalzai Pashtuns who reside in the Kandahar area.

Finding an anti-Taliban leadership in Jalalabad and the neighbouring provinces is, however, proving tricky.

Sources said the Taliban have withdrawn from Jalalabad which has been occupied by a faction led by Yunis Khalis and his commander, Abdul Qadir.

But keen to retain a foothold in Jalalabad which is not far from its border, Pakistan is pushing in forces of Zaman Ghun Shareef. Zaman's group crossed into Afghanistan from the Khyber Pass and headed for Jalalabad on Friday. Late evening reports, however, suggest that an uneasy power sharing deal in Jalalabad has been struck. While Haji Qadir, who is supported by the Northern Alliance, has been made governor of Jalalabad, the number two position has been occupied by Zaman.

The assessment here is that the U.S., now that the Northern Alliance has occupied Kabul, is likely to urge the latter to exercise restraint, till a credible home-grown Pashtun leadership in Afghanistan emerges.

Despite the emphasis on the emergence of an indigenous Pashtun leadership, a role for the former exiled King Zahir Shah continues to remain relevant. His active role, however, will be determined by the results achieved on the ground in the coming days, the sources said. King Zahir Shah is expected to convene the Loya Jirga, a council of elders, that will decide the constitutional future of Afghanistan.

As for the United Nations, it is likely to play a credible political role only after it gets a nod from key players, such as the U.S., Russia and the European countries, the sources said.

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