Iran keeps all its options

Kesava Menon

THEY HAVE more reason to hate the Taliban than almost anyone else, they are allied with arguably the most competent anti- Taliban commander in the field and they have a lot to gain from the collapse of the Taliban. Yet, the Iranians, who opposed the Islamic militia since it swept to power, appear to be wavering just when a whole coalition of forces poses the biggest threat to the Taliban it has ever had to face.

There have been reports of Taliban officials travelling to Mashad for talks with Iranian officials and also about a delegation from Teheran going to Kandahar. These reports have neither been confirmed nor denied by Iranian authorities but the absence of denial or admission need not mean much. The Iranians do not bother much about reports in a Western media they believe has been consistently hostile. In any case, the machinations Iran might mount could be more effective if shrouded in mystery. The former Mujahideen commander Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, currently based in Iran, is reportedly reaching out to the Taliban and the reports that he is doing so at least partly on behalf of his hosts have not been denied either.

If the Iranians have indeed turned friendly, it would have come as a huge relief to the Taliban. Despite the Pakistan Government's claim that it has responded to U.S. requests to choke off supplies to the Taliban, supplies can still slip across the porous border with or without Islamabad's connivance. However, a supply route from Iran, especially for the oil without which no war can be fought in modern times, will be infinitely more assured and a little more secure from interdiction by U.S. warplanes.

Iran's attitude towards the Taliban is said to have changed because of its apprehension that the U.S. was keen on re- installing the former King, Mohammed Zahir Shah, after the overthrow of the Taliban. This line of analysis does not make much sense. Why should Iran worry whether a Taliban-free Afghanistan is a monarchy or a republic or some other form of Government as long as it is peaceable? The return of monarchy to Afghanistan could, say some, give rise to the demand for a return to monarchy in Iran and, a theocratic regime that overthrew the Iranian monarchy cannot tolerate even the slightest possibility of such a development. But there is hardly anyone who wants the monarchy to return to Iran. Those who speak out against the theocrats are demanding more democracy not a return to rule by the Shahs.

If Iran really had fears on this score, they would have been further reduced by the developments on the Zahir Shah front. The former King's representatives failed to turn up at the conference called by that most loyal of former mujahideen leaders, Pir Gilani. While the Northern Alliance claims it has drawn up its list of candidates for a Loya Jirgathat might be held under the King's chairmanship at some time, there seems to be very little coordination on a daily basis between the Alliance and the King. A long-standing incompatibility between those Afghans who have actually done the fighting for the last 20 years and the ``Gucci Muj'' - reportedly busy right now vying for seats at a Luciano Pavarotti concert - does not appear to have been bridged in the least.

What does really worry Iran - that faces U.S. allies on its south-western and north-western flanks - is the prospect that America might become entrenched in a post-Taliban Afghanistan. It does not, therefore, want a very pro-Western Pashtun element - whether the King or groups like his - to become the dominant force in the neighbouring country. At the same time, Teheran has been clear - and it had recognised this earlier and more clearly than almost anyone else - that there can be no stable Government in Kabul without a strong Pashtun element.

Iran's moves currently appear directed to ensure that the Pashtun element which becomes dominant is nationalistic and not subservient to the U.S.

That Iran's current moves are purely tactical, and do not represent a strategic repudiation of the Northern Alliance, is apparent from the fact that it continues to provide material assistance to the Alliance. Not much news is coming out of western Afghanistan these days but Ismail Khan, former Governor of Heart, was the first to gain significant chunks of territory from the Taliban.

Another question is whether Iran's current moves are not connected with its overall diplomatic objectives? It is very difficult to deny that the current developments have provided Iran with an opportunity to further whittle away at its estrangement from the U.S.

There have been reports that Iranian authorities have told Western diplomats in closed sessions that they agree with the war goal of removing the Taliban from power and that public rhetoric to the contrary should be ignored.

Iran, in an unprecedented move, has offered the use of its air space for missions that might be mounted to search and rescue downed U.S. airmen. At the end of this week, Iran also declared that it was re-calling military advisers sent to help Muslim warriors in places as diverse as Kosovo and Lebanon.

Next week, the Iranian President, Syed Mohammed Khatami, will be addressing the U.N. General Assembly.

It is not the Iranian style to make dramatic political announcements but Mr. Khatami's speech will still be noted with interest.

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