U.S. diluting Pak.'s importance

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, NOV. 2. With the focus of the United States campaign shifting to northern Afghanistan, Pakistan may lose importance as a frontline state in the war against terrorism.

Government sources here say that several factors are in play which explain why the U.S. may begin to distance itself from Pakistan.

Contrary to the expectations of the U.S. and Pakistan, the air raids against the Taliban strongholds are not leading to the splintering of the militia. So the U.S. may review its tactics by taking more interest in the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, which has its strongholds in northern Afghanistan, sources maintained.

They, however, point out that there are other grounds which have generated an unease in U.S.-Pakistan equations. The execution of Abdul Haq, a pro-U.S. commander, by the Taliban, may have created friction between Washington and Islamabad. It was now widely established that Pakistan intelligence compromised Haq's security by leaking information on his whereabouts to the Taliban.

The assessment was that Pakistan wanted to signal to the U.S. not to bypass Islamabad in its search for new Pashtun leaders who could be accommodated in a post-conflict government in Kabul. The U.S. intelligence, which had cultivated Haq for long without intimately involving Pakistan, has not taken kindly to this affront by Islamabad, the sources said.

The Pakistani refusal to give the U.S. access to its nuclear weapons was also seen as a factor in undermining the warmth in the relationship. While the Pakistanis agreed to take advice for making their nuclear weapons more secure, they refused to allow the U.S. any physical access to its nuclear wherewithal, the sources observed.

Friction over U.S. demand for two more Pakistani bases may also have been a factor which encouraged the U.S. to reach out to Russia, Turkey and the Northern Alliance in the fight against the Taliban. The U.S. was looking for the bases of Shurkat and Mianwali, apart from the existing four for the anti- Taliban campaign. Incidentally, Mianwali is close to the Pakistan's nuclear facility in Chashma.

Finally, the beginning of Ramadan later this month is also seen a factor encouraging the U.S. to lower its dependence on Pakistan. The U.S. may not be inclined to undertake heavy bombardment from the south as this could further inflame passions among Pakistani radicals.

Sources, however, caution that the distancing between the U.S. and Pakistan, given the latter's geographical location, may not be permanent. The assessment here is that the U.S. continues to believe that the Pakistan President, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, is the best bulwark against Islamic radicalism in that country. In fact, Pakistan, under its present dispensation, is likely to benefit from external economic aid and commercial incentives. While Pakistan's economic bailout may be on the way, the achievement of its larger geopolitical objectives of creating a sphere of influence in Afghanistan through the Taliban may not materialise.

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