India monitoring changes in tactics

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, OCT. 31. India is closely monitoring the current U.S. inclination to target the Taliban frontline near the Northern Alliance strongholds in Afghanistan. Highly-placed sources in the security establishment point out that the U.S. planes are raiding Taliban positions close to a vital road link which leads out of Tajikistan towards the city of Mazar-e-Sharif.

In case these strikes continue, they can, for the first time, help the Tajik flank of the Northern Alliance, succeed in the battlefield. The Northern Alliance, which is close to Russia, India and Iran, represents the ethnic minorities of Afghanistan, including the Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras and Shias.

Analysts here are attaching considerable importance to the change of military tack by the U.S. Sources pointed out that by favouring the Tajiks, the U.S. maybe tacitly acknowledging that it cannot solely depend on the Pakistanis for countering the Taliban in Afghanistan.

According to an assessment here, the U.S. still relies heavily on Pakistan. But there are two developments that are forcing it to review its tactics on the ground. First, the disintegration of the Taliban, which both the Americans and the Pakistanis expected, has not taken place. On the contrary, the bombings, according to one view, may have only reinforced the resolve of the Taliban to fight. In fact, the Taliban could consolidate further in case the air raids continue during the month of Ramzan.

Second, the murder of Gen. Abdul Haq, a pro-U.S. Pashtun leader, by the Taliban has served as a ``wake-up call'' for the U.S. It is now widely perceived that the Pakistani intelligence may have knowingly played a role in compromising Abdul Haq's security.

The U.S. willingness to promote a possible advance by the Tajiks may also be on account of its failure to push its favourite Uzbek faction leader, Gen. Rashid Dostum, into Mazar-e- Sharif. Sources confirm that Gen. Dostum had recently received around $50 million from the U.S. Doubting Gene. Dostum's loyalty, the Tajik military commander in Mazar-e-Sharif, Ustad Atta, pulled out the Tajik forces that were also jointly attacking Mazar-e-Sharif recently. Consequently, the city has still not fallen.

The absence of a land route from Uzbekistan to the stronghold of Gen. Dostum has also hampered his advance towards Mazar-e-Sharif. This is because the Taliban maintains a strong presence along this passage. As a result, arming Gen. Dostum with heavy military equipment, necessary for a final assault on Mazar- e-Sharif, has become extremely difficult.

Faced with the possibility of the campaign against the Taliban getting bogged down, the U.S. has begun to explore the Tajik option. Intelligence inputs received here show that the U.S. planes are now striking the city of Taleqan, which is currently held by the Taliban. In case Taleqan falls, this can facilitate a parallel Tajik assault on Mazar-e-Sharif as a road which cuts though Taleqan heads towards this embattled city.

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