AIADMK can't ignore allies

By Suresh Nambath

CHENNAI, OCT. 22. For the AIADMK, the results of the civic elections have neither fulfilled its fondest hopes nor confirmed its worst fears. The party appears to have retained its 30 per cent vote bank but the political realignments since the Assembly election have taken their toll.

There was no compensation for the loss of the PMK, the Congress and the CPI(M), which together made up for 12 to 15 per cent of the vote bank. The loss of the PMK, which crossed over to the DMK front, hurt the AIADMK all the more.

The PMK, primarily a rural party of Vanniars in the northern districts, proved an ideal ally for the DMK. Though the DMK was stronger than the AIADMK in the urban areas of the northern districts, it needed additional support in the rural areas.

Although the PMK is weaker than both the DMK and the AIADMK, it can provide the critical difference in votes to tilt the scales. Indeed, the DMK commands greater support among the Vanniars than the PMK, but one-third of the Vanniars, who form the backbone of the PMK, constitute a solid electoral bloc.

Some of the reverses suffered by the AIADMK in the rural north were on account of the changed alliance arithmetic following the DMK-PMK tie-up.

In other areas, the exit from the alliance of the Congress and the CPI(M), which fought the elections separately, told on the AIADMK performance. In the west, where the Congress scored significant gains, the AIADMK could not fully convert its traditional advantage over the DMK into seats.

Similarly, in the far south, constituting the Kanyakumari- Nagercoil-Tiruchendur areas, the absence of the Congress and the CPI(M) in its front was felt by the AIADMK.

The BJP-inclusive DMK front scored substantially on account of the AIADMK's failure to accommodate the Congress and the CPI(M) in the areas bordering Kerala.

If the elections have a lesson for the AIADMK it is this: the party cannot afford to treat its allies lightly. The increasing fragmentation of the vote bank makes alliance politics all the more important, and the smaller parties would have to be given their due.

Unlike in an Assembly or Lok Sabha, the smaller parties cannot be marginalised in local bodies. Both the Congress and the CPI(M) more than justified their decision to go it alone. The CPI(M), which was offered the same number of seats as the CPI in the AIADMK alliance, scored more than the CPI by fighting individually.

If the local bodies election was a maiden test for the new TMC president, Mr. G. K. Vasan, he did not fail. The party pulled off a surprise triumph in the Tiruchi Mayoral election, but lost 16 out of the 25 posts for municipal chairman it contested.

In the end, the civic polls saw no great victories, no great losses for the two major fronts. But, there were plenty of small surprises as both the AIADMK and the DMK evened out their gains and losses.

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Section  : Southern States
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