Revamping statistical system

The National Statistical Commission was set up by the Central Government in January 2000 under the chairmanship of Dr. C. Rangarajan. The two principal terms of reference for the Commission were to examine critically the deficiencies of the present statistical system in terms of timeliness, reliability and adequacy and to recommend measures to correct the deficiencies and revamp the statistical system for the purpose of policy and planning in Government at different levels.

The Commission submitted its report on September 5. Excerpts from the report:

Collection of numerical data for the purpose of understanding the behaviour of various socio-economic variables has a long history. The origin of the term `statistics' is associated with this concept, which is to describe the state. Of course, statistics, as a scientific discipline, goes beyond enumeration. Statistical inference is an important part of the discipline. However, inference will be fruitless, if the basic data are faulty or inaccurate or unreliable. That is why one has to pay attention to data collection in all its dimensions. A good statistical system is a prerequisite for sound decision-making and for the formulation and monitoring of public policies.

India, in accordance with its federal structure, has created a statistical system which is decentralised as well as centralised. Large-scale statistical operations such as population census, economic census and nationwide sample surveys are centralised. In addition, the compilation of macro-economic aggregates such as national accounts, price indices and industrial production are largely Central activities. However, the State governments and statistical organisations of the State are also engaged in collecting and generating data on a number of variables.

Even where the responsibility for policy formulation lies with the Central ministries, the actual collection of data may be done by the State governments through their agencies. For example, in the case of agricultural statistics, the crop area and yield data are collected by State governments through various schemes initiated by the Central Ministry of Agriculture. There is, therefore, a need for a high degree of coordination between the Central statistical authorities and the State-level organisations. The Statistics Wing of the Union Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is the nodal agency for coordination of statistical activities and maintenance of statistical standards. For coordination with States and Union Territories, it operates through State Directorates of Economics and Statistics.

The Indian Statistical System has over the years built an elaborate statistical infrastructure to capture the wide variety of data generated by a large and decentralised economy. However, due to its over dependence on the administrative setup and traditional records, the system has not been able to keep pace with the demands of statistical requirements.

The process of development has also brought in significant structural changes in the economy which need to be captured by the statistical system. While the scientific basis for the generation of data and the methodologies adopted may not be in question, in many cases, what has brought about a decline in the quality and reliability of the statistics generated by the system is the inability of the present system or procedure of collecting data to meet the quality standards.

Apart from the quality of data, there are other problems such as data gaps, duplication leading to conflicting statistics and inordinate delays in transmission and publication of data. In the field of agricultural statistics, large data gaps exist with reference to the output of fruits and vegetables and other minor crops, and estimates of meat, meat products and fish. The results of 16th Livestock Census, scheduled to be completed in 1997, are still not available for a number of States. The representativeness of the Index of Industrial Production has been considered as questionable due to inter alia inadequate information on the small scale sector. One of the perennial issues relating to national income in India has been the difference between the National Accounts and National Sample Survey (NSS) estimates on consumption expenditure. In the area of external sector statistics also, the reconciliation of the data on exports and imports between the Directorate-General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S) and the Reserve Bank of India is essential. Further, the present system has not been able to provide adequate information on basic socio-economic indicators required for micro-level planning. For example, although the civil registration system was envisaged as a mechanism to provide annual estimates of the infant mortality rate, death and birth rate, and the like at the district level, it has failed and as a result, such estimates are not available at the decentralised level. No reliable information is available on many aspects in the health sector such as problems of the aged, contribution of private sector to health care and disease- specific expenditure on health. The whole area of service sector is undergoing far-reaching changes with the application of information technology. More of intangible goods are getting exchanged. However, huge data gaps exist with reference to such transactions.

The Indian Statistical System, therefore, needs to improve its credibility, timeliness and adequacy. The Commission has examined the present system of collection and dissemination of statistics relating to different sectors of the economy using these criteria. For overcoming the problems identified thereby, the Commission has adopted a five-fold remedial approach:

First, reform in the administrative structure of the Indian Statistical System and upgrading its infrastructure so as to ensure its autonomy. Second, improvement of the present system of collection of data, in relation to data that are now being generated. Third, exploration of alternative techniques, in relation to the existing statistics, if the present system for collecting data is under strain for whatever reasons. Fourth, identification of new data series that may be generated in keeping pace with the expanding economy, and fifth, evolution of appropriate methodologies for collection of data, in relation to the new data requirements.

Administration of the Indian Statistical System

At the moment, as the system operates, there is no effective coordination either horizontally among the different departments at the Centre or vertically between the Centre and the States. The responsibilities for the horizontal and vertical coordination and maintenance of statistical standards rest with the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. However, it is found that this Ministry is not in a position to ensure that the ministries and all State governments adhere to certain commonly- accepted procedures. The task has become more difficult as the post of the Director-General of the Central Statistical Organisation remains unoccupied so far. Lack of an effective and adequately empowered coordination mechanism is a major weakness in the system. Besides, there is no statistics policy-making body or authority for evolving a national statistical strategy.

For reform of administration of the Indian Statistical System by upgrading its infrastructure and thereby enhancing the credibility of official statistics, the Commission is of the view that an independent statistical authority free from political interference having power to set priorities with respect to core statistics is needed to ensure quality standards of statistical processes. Such an authority will also improve the coordination among different agencies collecting data. Though the National Advisory Board on Statistics was constituted with this objective, its impact has been minimal. In view of this, the Commission has recommended the creation of a permanent and statutory apex body - National Commission on Statistics (NCS) - through an Act of Parliament, independent of the Government in respect of policy- making, coordination and maintaining quality standards of core statistics. The NCS will have a chairman and four expert members all of whom will be eminent statisticians or social scientists and they will act on the advice of a number of technical committees on various subject areas.

The presence of an administrative machinery within the Government is necessary to implement and sustain the policies evolved by the proposed NCS. The Commission has, therefore, proposed a restructuring of the existing statistics wing of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation into a full-fledged Department of the Ministry to be known hereafter as the National Statistical Organisation (NSO).

The head of the NSO will be the National Statistician and will be the Secretary to the Government of India. He or she will also be the Secretary to the National Commission on Statistics. The NSO will comprise three offices and a wing, namely, the Central Statistical Office, National Sample Survey Office, Data Storage and Dissemination Office and consultancy Wing in order to implement and maintain statistical standards as laid down by the NCS besides carrying out various other functions such as the compilation of national accounts, apart from facilitating national and international coordination, publication of core statistics, the conduct of methodological research and studies, as well as arranging the training of statistical personnel and maintenance of a `warehouse' for core statistics.

There is an increasing demand for professional statistical activities within the Government. The Commission has, therefore, recommended the creation of a body - the Consultancy Wing - under the National Statistical Organisation to utilise the expertise available within the government in the setting up of a commercial wing for professional statistical activities.

A lack of coordination among the different ministries and departments of the Central Government leads ultimately to poor and unproductive statistical advice to the administrative ministries and departments concerned. To remedy this situation, the Commission recommends the appointment of statistical advisers in important ministries and departments in order to make available sound statistical inputs and advice for the purposes of policy formulation and decision-making under the technical guidance of the National Statistician.

Some of the State directorates of economics and statistics do not play a nodal role in the co-ordination of statistical activities within the State and lack survey sampling and data processing capabilities. To improve the coordination within the State statistical systems, the State directorates of economics and statistics must be made responsible for technical co-ordination with all State departments in respect of the content, methodology and dissemination of statistics. The conference of Central and State statistical organisations is another instrument, that will provide a forum for regular interaction among the Central and State statisticians. In some of the States, as the statistical cadres are generally fragmented the constitution of an organised State Statistical Cadre is urgently required. For strengthening the statistical system in the States, the Commission has recommended a Centrally-sponsored scheme with the specific objectives of developing survey and data-processing capabilities in the States.

As quality issues hinge on the professional capabilities of the officers and staff engaged in producing national statistics, an important objective of the Indian statistical system is to promote professionalism in the Indian statistical service. Statistical activities being skill oriented an adequate focus on human resource development is therefore necessary to sustain any reforms in the system. At the moment, there is no mechanism either for providing appropriate training to the official statisticians or for promoting specialisation among the officers of the Indian statistical service.

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