The polity

By K. K. Katyal

IN THE midst of fast changing political developments, at times with sudden, unexpected twists, there is a danger of people and parties losing sight of the direction the polity is heading in. This is a matter that needs to be focussed continuously. Even though there is no tradition in India of concerted popular pressure changing the course of events except through the elections, there is merit in creating awareness of the total picture as also of the medium-term prospects. It may not lead to a mid-term course correction, but may enable the people to take a holistic view and exercise their judgment soundly at the required time instead of getting lost in details.

This is particularly important at this juncture when the outlook is far from cheering and the polity seems to be heading towards confusion and uncertainty. The hopes pinned on the coalitional dispensation that replaced single-party rule in 1996 have been belied. The return of the old order is out of question given the current political dynamics, and, at the same time, the deficiencies noticed in the new power-sharing arrangement refuse to be remedied. The tendency to give in to despair will need to be shed, even though the other course - of generating strong pressures to put an end to the coalitional anarchy - is not immediately feasible.

What is the situation now? The ruling combine collectively and its leading constituent, the BJP, individually, have run into a bad patch. The main Opposition, the Congress, is not in good shape and the third force, the People's Front, is yet to acquire coherence. The working of successive coalitions in the last five years as also the conduct of the Opposition were far from inspiring.

Take the functioning of the National Democratic Alliance and the performance of its Government. True, it retains the advantage of numbers and, as such, does not face an immediate threat to its survival but it cannot boast of internal cohesion as its strong point. If the public posture of Mr. Balasaheb Thackeray, supremo of the Shiva Sena, the BJP's closest ally, represented one phase of tension, the sniping by the RSS and other Sangh Parivar outfits at the PMO and the open expression of dissent by them over the Government's policies signified another, and factional fights in the constituents such as the Janata Dal and its breakaway groups the third one. What holds them together is the glue of power.

The BJP's claims of the past - that it was a party with a difference - now evoke derision. Also, it is no longer in a position to take pride in its performance - the party's major theme during the elections and after. On the contrary, it finds its credibility badly dented because of the conduct of the coalition government led by it. The tehelka episode and the stock market scam were still fresh in the people's memory when the US64 UTI fiasco caught it on the wrong foot. The Opposition has only to relay the tehelka tapes of the former BJP president, Mr. Bangaru Laxman, accepting money - later described as a party donation and not a bribe - and the effect will be devastating. The UTI investors, normally belonging to the middle classes, the traditional BJP constituency, are now seething with anger.

The Government's handling of the various crises is unsatisfactory, howsoever viewed. The Kashmir situation - the battered law and order, sullenness of the people, failure to resolve the domestic political problem compounded a formidable challenge, posed by terrorist activities, inspired, sustained and organised by the Pakistani agencies. True, India or the Prime Minister, Mr. A. B. Vajpayee, could not be blamed for the inability of the Agra summit to produce a joint declaration, but could they be absolved of the responsibility for the adverse consequences of hesitations after the peace process was initiated in November last year? The escalation of terrorist violence underscores the addition of complications. The Northeast problem, too, has been allowed to acquire avoidable complexities. The situation in the region, it is conceded, is not the creation of the present Government but is the cumulative result of the policies and actions of the past decades when the Congress was at the helm at the Centre. But that period also witnessed some positive developments - the establishment of mechanisms such as the ceasefire with the underground Nagas, which kept violence within manageable limits, and the Mizoram accord which ended the long spell of insurgency. The present coalition needed to strengthen the existing mechanisms, build upon positive processes, set in motion on the past, and focus on the development of the region and, thus, reduce the alienation of the people.

In two other cases - Tamil Nadu and Punjab - there could be setbacks because of the acts of omission and commission by New Delhi. As regards Tamil Nadu, the Centre could not be faulted for having shown concern over the manner of the arrest of the former Chief Minister, Mr. Karunanidhi, and two Central Ministers. But its subsequent response - the recall of the Governor and the demand for the transfer of IPS officers serving in the State - tended to distort Centre-State dealings. In Punjab, the Government led by an NDA constituent, the Akali Dal, and including the BJP, does not seem alive to the dangers posed by the return of confirmed Khalistanis, Zaffarwal and Jagjit Singh Chauhan, who had conducted secessionist struggles in the past and had not given up the old platform. How their presence - and the official passivity - will impact on the political trends at the time of the Assembly elections, not for away, is difficult to say.

The political situation in the country could not be more conducive for the Congress to stage a comeback. Here is a golden opportunity for it to cash in on the widespread discontent. But the main opposition party has not risen to the occasion, giving rise to jeers - that while the people are prepared to turn to the Congress, the party is not ready to turn to the people. Its performance in the current session of Parliament confirms this assessment. Surprisingly, it failed to project itself as an effective exponent of the people's causes. The resultant popular perceptions were far from flattering for it. The party needs to counter the criticism on various counts - deficiencies at the leadership level, paucity of talent, disincentives for the emergence of collective leadership, failure to present an alternative platform, lack of contact with the masses, absence of inner party democracy, inability to put the organisational structure on a sound basis and to end internal bickerings, and last but not the least, lack of clarity in dealings with others in the Opposition. It could regain much of the lost ground if it were to establish its credentials as a living force. Will it?

The People's Front, of the non-Congress sections of the Opposition, does meet a political necessity in that it fills the space not occupied by the two mainstream formations, but it is yet to acquire a viable form. Soon after its inception some months ago, it took up the essential preliminaries like formulation of its programme and prescription of the criteria for admitting new members but there is no evidence of activity subsequently. The Front needs to shed the image it has acquired - that it is negative in its conception and that it represents the sum-total of strong regional interests, of Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and the Left Front in West Bengal and Tripura. It is yet to be clear about its relationship with the Congress, the main impediment being their contradictions in the States - in West Bengal, Kerala and Uttar Pradesh.

All in all, it is a depressing scenario. The ruling combine is fast losing its credibility but the emergence of a viable alternative is not in sight. On key economic policies, the Congress is closer to the Government than to others in the Opposition. The Opposition groups find it hard to shed their mutual antipathy. The Uttar Pradesh Assembly election, due early next year (unless advanced), and the presidential contest, due in less than a year, may, in some part, reduce the present confusion and uncertainty and restore a measure of political orderliness by the time of the next general election. All that one can say now is that the next dispensation would emerge out of new permutations and combinations in which regional groups, too, would count.

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