The race has just begun

In Australia, the opposition Labour Party has the edge now but the ruling coalition could gain ground as the poll date nears. Amit Baruah reports.

IT IS certain that Australia will have general elections in December. And, as parties begin preparations for the polls in the country of 19 million people, there is a sense of fatigue in the electorate.

During a recent visit to Australia, where this correspondent travelled to Sydney, Canberra and Adelaide, there was a sense of dissatisfaction with the performance of politicians - whether from the ruling Liberal Party / National Party coalition or the Labour Party.

However, given the fact that politicians are not the most popular bunch in most democracies (including India), Australian democracy has nothing much to be worried about.

The electorate is concerned about the imposition of an across-the-board GST by the John Howard Government and the consequent increase in prices; workers and unions are worried about the cutback in benefits and sections of the rich are concerned that parties do not have programmes they can support.

If you were in Sydney on June 19, you could travel free by the city's public transport system - on buses, trains and ferries. The police were not collecting fines from motorists - it was a free for all. The reason? Unions in New South Wales were protesting the cutback in medical benefits and were so angry that they mounted a blockade of the State Parliament. As Australia integrates with the global economy, there are fears among ordinary Australians about the impact on them - particularly with regards to jobs and benefits. The Government, however, is actively promoting regional and global economic interaction and believes that this is the way forward.

For the upcoming elections, the picture appears to be mixed. The Liberal/National coalition, which was voted back to power in October 1998 holds 80 seats in the 148-member House of Representatives. The Australian Labour Party or ALP has 68. According to recent polls, the Government is said to be ``well behind'' in the run-up to the polls. That picture, however, can change and a Labour Party official told this correspondent that the Government usually picks up points as the election nears.

In March 1996, the Liberal/National coalition broke the 13-year- old monopoly of Labour on power. And, now, after six years of coalition rule, Labour is attempting a comeback under Mr. Kim Beazley. It is instructive what the U.S. State Department's country brief has to say about ``political conditions'' in Australia: ``Three political parties dominate the centre of the Australian political spectrum; the Liberal Party (LP), nominally representing urban business-related groups, the National Party (NP), nominally representing rural interests; and the Australian Labour Party (ALP), nominally representing the trade unions and liberal groups.''

``Although embracing some leftists, ALP traditionally has been moderately socialist in its policies and approaches to social issues. All political groups are tied by tradition to domestic welfare policies, mostly enacted in the 1980s, which have kept Australia in the forefront of societies offering extensive social welfare programmes. Australia's social welfare safety net has been reduced in recent years, however, in response to budgetary pressures and a changing political outlook....'' the U.S. State Department added.

Other than the whittling down of welfare measures, another issue that has come to dominate the headlines in Australia is that of ``illegal'' immigrants and their mandatory detention. A recent joint parliamentary committee was severe in its criticism of the Government and the way it had handled the issue. However, party positions on the issue are being influenced by the views of the right-wing One Nation party of Ms. Pauline Hanson. After faring badly in the 1998 general election, One Nation has staged a comeback in State elections.

In the country's preferential vote system, some analysts argue, One Nation can make a difference in seats where no party attains an outright victory. Analysts have also described One Nation as an ``anti- almost-everything'' party. The party is anti-refugee and anti- immigrant.

``How can a person be determined as a refugee when they possibly pass 16 countries to get to Australia, pay more to get here than on a legal cruise ship, and destroy all forms of identification...'' Ms. Hanson said in a recent statement. ``The Howard Government decided to build more detention centres at an enormous cost to the Australian taxpayer, yet can't build or service existing hospitals or better roads for Australians...''

The agendas of the major parties on the immigrant-refugee question, clearly, are being pre-empted by Ms. Hanson. The Liberal/National coalition Government, for instance, rejected out of hand the recommendation of a Parliamentary Committee that refugees/immigrants be released after serving 14 weeks in detention.

There is little doubt that Australia's democratic credentials have not been served by the way in which the Government has been dealing with the issue of refugee-immigrants. Given the fact that a majority of refugees are coming from desperate countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq, one can only imagine what suffering these persons have undergone in their countries of origin and during their journey to Australia. And, very often, their claims are rejected and many are rotting in detention centres.

Labour may have an edge today in the opinion polls, but the Liberal/National coalition is going to fight it out to the last. The polls promise an interesting outcome.

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