Vajpayee's date with history

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI, JUNE 28. When he receives Gen. Pervez Musharraf next month for a crucial conversation on the future of India-Pakistan relations, the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, will have an eye on history and his own place in it.

For all practical purposes, the preparations for Gen. Musharraf's three-day visit to India are being driven by Mr. Vajpayee's personal conviction that he can make a difference to India- Pakistan relations.

Nothing else explains the second overture to Pakistan in barely two years. The ``Kargil shock'' within a few weeks of his bus trip to Lahore should have cured Mr. Vajpayee of his political romanticism.

But when it comes to Pakistan, Mr. Vajpayee seems an incorrigible optimist. The sceptical bureaucracy is urging him not to rush headlong into a renewed engagement with Pakistan which could end up in a betrayal - again.

The professionals in the national security establishment are cautioning the Prime Minister against giving up traditional positions on Kashmir in return for less than substantive political concessions from Gen. Musharraf.

Having been condemned to waging trench warfare daily with Pakistan, the security establishment may be pardoned for its morbid pessimism about engaging Pakistan. It certainly is the job of professional bureaucracy to point to the dangers of negotiating with Pakistan in a sentimental manner.

The logic of power relations between nations, realists will be right in saying, cannot be altered by individual romanticism. But it is equally true that intractable problems between nations are only solved by those ready to rise above the immediate and look forward.

All indications are that Mr. Vajpayee may be ready to risk making assumptions about Gen. Musharraf which may turn out to be wrong. Would Mr. Vajpayee lose a lot by ``trusting'' Gen. Musharraf?

Not necessarily. India has everything to gain and nothing to lose by articulating a cooperative agenda for the subcontinent. In engaging Pakistan despite earlier setbacks, Mr. Vajpayee is demonstrating India's new readiness to lead the region to a different future.

In a big paradox, if he makes allowances for failure at Agra, the chances of his success in dealing with Pakistan over the long- term are likely to improve considerably. That in any case is the lesson Mr. Vajpayee should have learnt from Lahore. He had his eyes wide shut at Lahore. Despite the many disturbing signals during his visit to Pakistan, he was not prepared for what was to follow - in Kargil.

Mr. Vajpayee must leave room in his mental calculus for the possibility that Gen. Musharraf may not want or is unable to fully implement the understandings arrived at Agra. ``Trust but verify,'' should be an important maxim for Indian policy towards Pakistan in the coming months.

The suggestion here for moving forward with cautious deliberation at every stage does not contradict the importance of maintaining the larger vision of bilateral relations.

The talk of arriving at great destinations will remain empty rhetoric without a road map and a travel plan. But to insist on total certitude in travel plans before embarking on the journey is to make sure there is no movement forward at all. Statesmanship is about articulating a different destiny and a willingness to take calculated risk in realising it.

Mr. Vajpayee has hinted repeatedly that he is ready to take risks with Pakistan and venture beyond the beaten track in looking for a different relationship with India's western neighbour. The most recent exposition of this was in his new year musings from Kumarakom.

At Lahore, Mr. Vajpayee just gambled with his vision of India- Pakistan relations. Now he needs a strategy which combines a significant element of political risk with a substantive insurance against failure. If Mr. Vajpayee can get that mix right, he will be keeping his date with history at Agra.

Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Section  : National
Previous : We're keeping vigil:  Badal
Next     : Cabinet Secy. extension order in a week