Turkey's Islamist party headed for split

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), JUNE 25. Turkey's Virtue party, the main vehicle of the country's Islamists, is headed for a split after the constitutional court banned it on Friday. Other political forces in the country and the secular Prime Minister, Mr. Bulent Ecevit, have expressed their dismay at the court's decision. But developments on this front might show that Turkey might have found a way to tame strong religious movements.

The court's decision to ban the party was based on its determination that the party violated the firm secular tenets of the Constitution. After the ban, the party's offices around the country have been closed and its properties confiscated. A couple of the 102 members that the party had in the 550-member strong Parliament have been expelled and the rest have been re- designated as independents. Most Turkish observers expect the remnants of Virtue to split into two major blocks with some of the MPs expected to join the ultra-nationalist National Action Party (MHP in its Turkish acronym) which is a part of the ruling coalition.

Virtue was the fourth incarnation of the political parties that Turkey's Islamist movement has sought to set up since the 1970's. The most notable success of Turkey's Islamists came in 1996-97 when its leader of the past three decades, Mr. Necmettin Erbakan, was Prime Minister. Turkey's military, which wields great political power by virtue of its dominant position in the National Security Council, was finally successful in forcing Mr. Erbakan out of office.

The Welfare party which was Mr. Erbakan's political organisation during his days as Prime Minister, was banned and the supporters of this movement re-grouped under the banner of the Virtue Party.

This latest ban on a political organisation trying to advance the Islamist agenda comes at a period when the movement appears to be in an overall decline. Virtue's performance in the last general election was significantly worse than that of Welfare in the previous election. There was also a major shift in the voting pattern in the Turkish heartland from where the Islamist movement usually obtained the bulk of its support. The mass base had shifted away from Virtue and towards the traditionalist nationalist MHP.

Analysts believed that this shift had occurred both because of Mr. Erbakan's dismal performance while in office and because people did not want to waste their votes for a party that the military would never tolerate in office.

Now that the ban has become official, a core group of younger leaders, who have been trying to formulate a more modern version of the Islamist message, are expected to form a separate party while the die-hards would remain with Mr. Erbakan. A third group is expected to drift towards and perhaps even join MHP. Further splits are expected down the line.

If just seven of the former Virtue and now independent members of Parliament join MHP, it would become the largest party in Parliament and the biggest partner in the ruling coalition. While the MHP cadres have been pressing their leadership to be more assertive in coalition affairs, the party leader, Mr. Davlet Bahceli, has said that he would not disrupt the coalition agreement that among other matters ensures the prime ministerial post for Mr. Ecevit.

It was not just the prospect of his coalition getting disturbed that had led Mr. Ecevit to ask the Constitutional Court to delay its decision on the question of banning Virtue. A multi- party committee is currently considering legislative measures that would make it difficult for the courts to dissolve political parties and the matter is also being considered by the European Court.

As the adverse response from the European Union and the U.S. has shown, the ban on the Virtue party raises serious questions about Turkey's democratic credentials. These credentials have to be solidly established if Turkey is to qualify for E.U. membership.

While the Islamist movement in Turkey will not die down with the banning of the Virtue party, its split does hold some auguries for the future. With younger Islamist leaders opting for a more modern approach, the Turkish developments might show that it is possible to moderate staunchly religious parties through sustained pressure.

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Section  : International
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