Deceptive calm in Nepal

By Atul Aneja

KATHMANDU, JUNE 6. With the main political parties united on preserving Nepal's constitutional monarchy, King Gyanendra appears to have warded off the first serious challenge to his authority.

After two days of curfew and violence, the capital today acquired a semblance of normality. The Army, deployed in considerable strength since Monday, was virtually withdrawn to the barracks, though riot police were positioned at key road junctions. The flagship Nepal Airlines, which had suspended its flights since Friday, resumed operations this afternoon. A precautionary night curfew between 9 p.m. and 3 a.m. was, nevertheless, ordered.

Nepal watchers, however, caution that the calm on the streets may be deceptive, but acknowledge that an element of ``spontaneity'' which marked street violence in the last two days was abating. But with political parties expressing a stake in the status quo, chances of large-scale organised protests may be receding.

The ruling establishment appears to be making another attempt to secure the support of the CPN(UML), main opposition party. Moves are afoot to reconstitute an expanded inquiry committee to probe the slayings of King Birendra and several members of his family on Friday last. Besides the Chief Justice, Mr. Keshav Upadhyay, and the Speaker, Mr. Taranath Ranabat, a more representative inquiry is likely to include Mr. P. C. Lohani, a former Foreign Minister and member of the pro-palace Rashtriya Prajantra Party, Mr. Sushil Koirala, a loyalist of the Prime Minister, Mr. G. P. Koirala, and Mr. Bharat Mohan i, CPN(UML) chief whip. The commission, if required, will be allowed to seek assistance of specialists from the security forces.

Procedural hurdle

As of now, the obstacle to the formation of a new committee is procedural. The CPN(UML), citing the 1990 Constitution, is demanding that the orders for the probe be passed only by an elected government. It had, therefore, on Tuesday declined to participate in the inquiry as it had been constituted the previous night by the King. While a meeting of the Cabinet, where the differences between the Palace and the Communists were expected to be reconciled, did not take place, the Prime Minister, the Chief Justice and the Speaker called on King Gyanendra to discuss the subject.

Once an understanding with the Communists, as is likely, over the formation of the committee is reached, King Gyanendra, in all probability, will acquire the support of all mainstream political parties so long as he continues to uphold the multiparty system. In fact, the ruling Nepali Congress, notwithstanding its deep internal divisions, has already expressed its whole-hearted support to King Gyanendra in anticipation of the latter's commitment to multiparty democracy and constitutional monarchy. India's expression of support for King Gyanendra at the highest levels may have also encouraged political parties here to back the new monarch.

Bid to isolate Maoists?

With the interests of mainstream parties converging on the platform of constitutional monarchy, the stage has been set for the isolation of the Maoists, who have been demanding a republican Constitution.

When contacted by The Hindu, a senior Communist leader, Mr. Jhala Nath Khanal, said a common understanding between the CPN(UML) and the Maoists was not possible until the latter gave up its armed struggle.

With such an eventuality unlikely, it now remains to be seen whether with the change of guard at the Narayanhity palace, a crackdown on the Maoists is initiated. According to reports, King Gyanendra has, in the past, advocated a more assertive stance towards the Maoists. In fact, even before his elevation to he monarchy, the Government, in the wake of the Maoist threat, had decided to form a 15,000 strong special counter-insurgency force.

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