The heir, apparently

His election to the Baath Party's Revolutionary Command has sparked speculation that Qusay Saddam Hussein will succeed his father as Iraq's leader. Kesava Menon reports.

QUSAY, YOUNGER son of Iraq's President, Mr. Saddam Hussein, was last week elected to the Revolutionary Command of his country's ruling Baath Party. Predictably enough this sparked off speculation about Qusay being his father's designated successor as well as derogatory commentary about the Arab world's propensity for dynastic succession. It is perhaps inevitable that Qusay will succeed his father but people should know the rules of a game before they proceed to denigrate it.

When the Arab world is described as tribalistic the comment usually carries a whiff of ridicule. Intellectuals in one of the countries that borders the Arab world, and a Muslim country at that, often dismiss the whole lot as ``tribes with flags''. But the Arabs themselves are proud of the strength and longevity of their tribal bonds and consider it an element of their culture that they should be proud of. From this perspective, a nation- state is primarily a conglomeration of tribes with their clans and sub-clans to which ethnic or religious minorities also give their allegiance. Such a hierarchical network provides for stability.

From this perspective, Iraq can be seen as a network of major and not-so-major tribes in which the Tikriti clansmen of the Hussein family form the innermost core. In this system, Mr. Saddam Huessein is the person currently at the epicentre. But the next ring is formed by his family, then his clan, his tribe and so on. Each broader layer would appear to leave questions such as the right line of succession to the autonomous layer that is just narrower. So other tribes will have to accept what each tribe decides, clans within a tribe accept what one clan decides and families within a clan accept what one family decides. A notable example of how this system operates was provided by Mr. Saddam Hussein himself in dealing with his errant sons-in-law.

Mr. Kemal Hussein and his brother staged a foolhardy attempt to overthrow their father-in-law's regime a few years ago. They slipped out to Jordan and then tried to convince the U.S. that they could form a viable opposition force to Mr. Saddam Hussein and that they should therefore be supported. After pumping the brothers for what they were worth the CIA decided that their utility level was negligible and dropped whatever plans it might have initially conceived. With no where else to go, the brothers listened to the assurances of their Government and returned to Iraq.

Observers in Baghdad say that Mr. Saddam Hussein remained true to his word. He merely pointed out to the Al Majed clan to which the brothers belonged that the two had committed treason against the state and that the clan should deal with them as it thought fit. The rest of the clansmen tried to persuade the brothers to submit themselves for trial and when the brothers could not be persuaded their clansmen killed them.

If in a sense Qusay has been anointed the successor the question that immediately rises is how his elder brother, Uday, will respond. At the middle of the week, photographs were published showing Uday and Qusay sitting next to each other and enjoying a light moment in obvious harmony. Uday has always be treated as the wild one both by the western media and the gossip on the Arab street and there are a lot of stories doing the rounds about his proclivity for self-centredness and violence. These stories might be a part of the general effort to play up the thuggish reputation of Mr. Saddam Hussein and his closest associates but other than being a member of parliament, publisher of a newspaper and president of his country's soccer federation, Uday does not seem to have any official position. Qusay on the other hand has reputedly been functioning as the head of the Republican Guard for some time now.

Where many of the other Arab countries use the charisma of monarchy to cement the network of tribal bonds, Iraq uses the cement of the Baath ideology. The Baathists have a consolidated grip on their country at various levels and at the apex. Within the Revolutionary Command, the apex cell of the Baath party, Mr. Saddam Hussein is of course currently numero uno. Nominally, however, the number two is Mr. Izzat Ibrahim and he is nowadays the most visible of the Baath's top leadership. But is any kind of a succession very imminent? Rumours about Mr. Saddam Hussein's ill-health regularly do the rounds. But people who have met the President just a few months ago said that he appeared to be in good health and that he, by the vigour of his handshake, appeared eager to prove that he was robust.

Iraq's enemies love to portray the country as one that is ruled by fear alone. There are of course independent records of the regime having acted brutally when it had a mind to. But inside Iraq there are people, who do not appear feeble-minded or terrorised, who speak more of other reasons why they stand by their President. They speak of the manner in which the pre-1990 oil wealth was spread far more evenly in Iraq than it was in any of the other countries of the Arab world and of how Mr. Saddam Hussein would roam the land like a modern day Haroun al Rashid to look into the welfare of his people. Hagiography induced by fear that is in turn induced by terror. May be so. But then why do foreigners who resided in Iraq prior to 1990, including the large number of Indians who worked there, also have memories of a regime that while autocratic did keep an eye on public welfare.

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