Allies are forever

Can the Pakistan-China all-weather friendship endure in the post- Cold War era? B. Muralidhar Reddy examines the issues involved.

``AN ENEMY's enemy is a friend.'' The Sino-Pakistan relationship of 50 years could have best reflected the saying if it was just centered on their common `enmity' for India. But it is no more so simple.

Diplomatic relations between Islamabad and Beijing have defied the rules of the international power games. Pakistan and China, who have come to be counted among the closest of allies, are poles apart in every conceivable context.

They do not share a common history, language, culture or religion. They have followed diametrically opposite models of economic and political development. And yet their friendship in the last five decades has grown from strength to strength.

For proof, one only had to be in Islamabad last week when the Chinese Prime Minister, Mr. Zhu Rongji, was on a four-day official visit. The military establishment was ecstatic. The joys of entertaining the Chinese guest were not, however, confined to the ruling class alone.

There was a flood of people on to the streets as Mr. Zhu landed in Lahore for a day-long visit to the historic city. The bonhomie was too good to be true.

What explains it all? What needs have they fulfilled in each other's case? What role would each like the other to play now? Can what is popularly described as an all-weather friendship endure the post-cold War era?

These were the questions that dominated the debate in the columns of the Pakistani press even as the leaders on both sides raised toast after toast to Sino-Pakistan relations.

The harsh conclusion of a majority of the commentaries was that for the ties to endure and grow, Pakistan would have to come out of a time-warp. It would have to re-orient its domestic economic, political and social policies in tune with the changing realities all around.

Pakistan would have to address some of the serious concerns of China. The Taliban regime with its zeal for exporting `jehad' has emerged as China's biggest bother in the region.

As is its wont, China chose not to directly raise the issue with the Musharraf regime during Mr. Zhu's visit. Conscious of the Chinese concerns on this count, Gen. Pervez Muzharraf on his own chose to offer an explanation on the nature of Pakistan's relationship with the Taliban during his one-to-one talks with the Chinese Premier.

Prof. Khalid Mahmud, Research Analyst, Institute of Regional Studies, explained that ``Beijing's decision to join the `Shanghai Five', along with Russia and three Central Asian states, was a veritable indicator of China's alarm over the rise of militant religious fundamentalism in Afghanistan.

``The Chinese make no bones about pronouncing the Taliban promoters of `terrorism' in the region, more so in the wake of their charge that secessionist elements from China's predominantly Muslim province of Xinjiang were being trained in camps in Afghanistan.

Besides the Taliban factor, the other major issue that should trouble Pakistan are some shifts in China's foreign policy particularly in the context of India.

In the post-Mao phase, Beijing's focus has been on matters economic and its initiatives to extend a hand of friendship to New Delhi have not gone unnoticed in Islamabd.

This has led to a situation where the ``common enemy factor'' (India) may no longer hold complete sway. In fact, the consistent advice of China to Pakistan in the past few years has been to put contentious issues such as Kashmir on the backburner and move on to explore areas of cooperation.

This was evident during Mr. Zhu's stay in Islamabad too. He did endorse Pakistan's view on the Kashmir dispute but was not willing to sing the song of implementation of U.N. Resolutions on plebiscite.

There was a time when China fully echoed Pakistan's sentiments on Kashmir. But that is now past.

China's opposition to the emergence of the United States as the sole superpower is another major area of discomfort to Pakistan.

Islamabad can no doubt count on Beijing as its strongest supporter, but its economic survival is tied to the goodwill of international financial agencies such as the IMF and the World Bank. And help from the U.S. and its allies have traditionally sustained Pakistan's Defence establishment.

As things stand, Pakistan is simply not in a position to cut off its links with the U.S. and its western allies. The Musharraf regime's dilemma on this count was evident in its hesitation on the National Missile Defence programme front.

To begin with, Gen. Musharraf was in no mood to denounce the proposed new missile defence shield of the Bush Administration. He chose to criticise the plan perhaps on prompting from the visiting dignitary.

But two days after Mr. Zhu left Pakistan, the military establishment promptly issued a clarification saying that the comments made by Gen. Musharraf on the missile and nuclear race had nothing to do with the NMD plan!

These are just a few examples of the irritants in Sino-Pakistan relations today.

Unless Islamabad is prepared to recognise these realities and re- adjust its domestic and foreign policy, it may lose much of its value to Beijing.

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