Looking for new friends

While publicly downplaying the China angle in India's diplomacy, New Delhi is actively waving its flag in Southeast Asia, writes Amit Baruah.

IS INDIA coy about using the ``C'' word? After having attracted considerable flak for going public about China's ``threat'' to India after the May 1998 nuclear tests, the Vajpayee Government doesn't use the word China publicly. In a letter addressed to the then U.S. President, Mr. Bill Clinton, after the nuclear tests, India had referred to the threat from China. Embarrassingly enough, Mr. Clinton, who later paid a much-trumpeted visit to India, promptly released Mr. Vajpayee's letter to the press.

Of late, India has launched a major diplomatic initiative in Southeast Asia. The Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, himself has visited Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia between January and May this year, and more visits are planned in coming months. Engagement at other levels, too, has been continuing. New Delhi has been lobbying both ASEAN and individual South East Asian nations for a separate ASEAN-India summit-level interaction, a proposal on which the regional grouping is still to decide.Remember, too, the launch of the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC) at Vientiane, Laos, in November 2000 by India, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar.

While not much has been heard about MGC since its launch, it does reflect India's desire to play a greater role in South East Asia. Interestingly, China was the only Mekong country which was left out of this inter-river grouping.This exclusion did not go unnoticed.

Myanmar, a country in which the strategic interests of India and China seem to collide, has also been given priority in the approach of the Vajpayee Government. High-level engagement with the military junta is no longer taboo. In fact, it is being encouraged.

There appears to be little doubt that the Vajpayee Government's rediscovery of South East Asia stems from its self-perception of being a ``major power'' after the nuclear tests of May 1998. Not content with Pokhran-II, the BJP-led Government is redefining India's relations with the rest of the world, especially the United States.

The Vajpayee Government believes that India must play a ``greater role'' outside its immediate neighbourhood. In the ASEAN Regional Forum's Annual Security Outlook 2000, the Government argued: ``India's security concerns extend beyond the conventional geographical definition of South Asia''. ``Given its size, geographical location, trade links... India's security environment ranges from the Persian Gulf to the Straits of Malacca across the Indian Ocean, including the Central Asian region in the North West, China in the North East and South East Asia...``

Referring to Sino-Indian relations, the India section in the ARF Outlook said that the border areas had remained largely peaceful. ``However, China's military modernisation - in particular nuclear and missile, its support to Pakistan, growing defence links with India's Bay of Bengal littoral neighbours, possible presence in the Indian Ocean, upgradation of defence assets... and doubts about the long-term stability of the region abutting India, necessitate its consideration as an abiding security concern,'' the report said. This report, which is not for public circulation, has chapters contributed by individual ARF nations and makes India's security concerns crystal clear. There is no ambiguity about what India perceives China to be doing.

However, for public consumption, senior representatives of the Vajpayee Government say that India wants good relations with China and even points to the security dialogue between the two countries. ``It (the China factor) is central to our engagement with several countries in South East Asia. But, if you ask the Government, such a concern will be promptly denied,'' one Indian official told this correspondent recently.

India's concerns have fitted in nicely with those expressed by the Bush administration. The ''encounter`` between the External Affairs Minister, Mr. Jaswant Singh, and Mr. George W. Bush at the White House came in the midst of the spy plane incident involving China. The new chemistry between India and the U.S. as exemplified in the ''discussions`` on the NMD reveal a new convergence between New Delhi and Washington on the need to ''contain`` Beijing.

While publicly downplaying the China angle in India's diplomacy, New Delhi is actively waving its flag in South East Asia, a region which China regards as crucial to its security.

From the current American point of view, China has been selected as enemy number one for the foreseeable future. American security ''concerns`` are shifting to the Pacific and China is certainly the focus of such ''concerns``. For many ASEAN countries, the American presence in the region has been seen as a counterpoise to this massive neighbour. Today, India believes that it can offer a ''counter pole`` to Chinese influence.

However, India is no match for the Chinese economy and Beijing's readiness to pump money into the region. After completing his South Asia minus India visit, the Chinese Premier, Mr. Zhu Rongji, visited Thailand. The Thai Defence Minister, Mr. Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, was quoted as saying that China had agreed to underwrite the construction of a $4 billion railway link between Thailand and China. In the Mekong countries, too, China has and remains willing to fund projects - a strategic strength that India currently doesn't have. To take the case of Myanmar, China has forged strategic links through investment and infrastructure projects and only recently India has been able to make an entry in the infrastructure area.

Whatever be the competitive aspects of the India-China relationship, outstanding bilateral issues make it imperative that New Delhi continue to engage Beijing to settle these questions. India, while building new equations with the U.S. and the rest of the world, must engage China meaningfully. Formal dialogue cannot substitute for trust and understanding. It cannot afford to look at China or South East Asia through an American prism.

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