Musical chairs in Manipur

It is not often that developments in the Northeast create political turbulence in New Delhi. K. V. Prasad on the BJP-Samata Party row over Manipur.

IT IS not often that developments, other than those related to insurgency, in the distant Northeast create political turbulence in New Delhi. But this past week, the National Democratic Alliance Government at the Centre was drawn into the vortex of a complex political situation in Manipur where two of its major constituents - the BJP and the Samata Party - had direct stakes in the events that unfolded in Imphal.

The defeat of the Samata Party's Government led by Mr. Radhabinod Koijam on May 21 in the Assembly soured relations between the NDA allies as 24 of the 26 BJP MLAs voted against the regime. Not surprising considering that Manipur's MLAs are new converts to both these parties. The BJP's strength had bloated from six to eight and then 26 MLAs, while the Samata Party's numbers went up from one to 13 in January - the result of floor crossings.

The Samata Party is livid with the BJP for not bailing out its three-month-old Government. And why not? It was the BJP central leadership that repeatedly proclaimed unflinching support to Mr. Koijam's People's Front Government.

From dissociating with the Vajpayee Government, to pulling out from the NDA, or at least teaching the BJP a lesson by bringing down its Government in Jharkhand or other local bodies, the demands for retaliation have been made in the Samata Party. How could the BJP go back on its word to the Samata Party's undisputed leader and NDA convener, Mr. George Fernandes?

Despite the sabre-rattling at an emergency meeting of the Samata Party's national executive, the hardliners were prevailed up on to view the issue pragmatically rather than emotionally. The argument was that pulling out of the NDA Government would have to be followed up by coming out of the alliance. But what after that? The Samata Party which has a major stake in Bihar could not associate with the Congress(I) and would have to look for partners afresh, the other option being to reach out to the third alternative. Having aligned with the BJP, the Samata Party had branded itself and it might not be easy to redraw the equations. The search since then is to find an honourable way out of the present logjam.

While the Samata Party cries hoarse about being ``betrayed'' by the BJP, it forgets that it had enacted a similar script three months ago. When Mr. Koijam crossed over from the Congress(I) with 10 MLAs this January, the Samata Party pulled down the Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP) Government of Mr. W. Nipamacha Singh, who too was part of the NDA with Mr. T. Chouba Singh as a Minister in the Vajpayee Cabinet. In November, 2000, when Mr. Nipamacha Singh faced a revolt, with the Speaker, Mr. S. Dhanajoy Singh, being the rallying point, Mr. Koijam shifted allegiance to the Samata Party and at one point joined hands with Mr. Nipamacha Singh which enraged the dissidents. In the end, it was one big happy family.

In a perhaps unparalleled development, in a House of 59 then there was just one Opposition member, Mr. Rishang Keishing of the Congress(I), the rest were in the People's Front. Things took a turn when the BJP admitted 18 breakaway MSCP MLAs who raised the banner of revolt against Mr. Koijam. Led by the former Chief Minister, Mr. R. K. Dorendra Singh of the BJP, they demanded that the party with maximum numbers should head the Government, an argument the Samata Party had advanced for installing Mr. Koijam.

Though it sought to play up the event as a BJP versus Samata Party equation, the latter did not rope in other allies. Perhaps a show of solidarity among the allies could have exerted pressure on the BJP. Apparently, the Samata Party did not wish to build up pressure to a point from where retraction would have become problematic both for the allies and the BJP. On the flip side, there was a viewpoint that the episode was sought to be played up by the Samata Party leadership which was feeling marginalised in the NDA power structure after the tehelka tapes. Yet another view was that the Samata Party leadership had got caught in the crossfire of the power tussle within the BJP.

The Samata Party leadership's bitterness was compounded by the ``shoddy treatment'' allegedly meted out to the Koijam Government by the Centre which blocked promised funds after North Block did not get reports from the State on how they were used. The Union Home Ministry had information that the funds were being leaked to insurgent groups, a charge denied by the political leadership in Imphal.

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