Normal monsoon again: IMD

By Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI, MAY 25. The India Meteorological Department has predicted that the south-west monsoon would be ``normal'' for the 13th consecutive year, though its predictions in 1999 and 2000 were off the mark.

The IMD director-general, Dr R. R. Kelkar, told reporters here today the overall prediction for this year's monsoon was 98 per cent of the long period average with a plus- minus four per cent error margin. The long period average monsoon for the country is 88 cm. of rain and it is termed ``normal'' if the rainfall is within plus-minus 10 per cent of the long period average.

This year's forecast is again based on the 16- parameter model of which 10 are favourable this time. Hence, the prediction of a normal monsoon. Dr. Kelkar also said that since predictions went wrong in 1999, the IMD revised the model last year and replaced four of the original 16 parameters. This is the second year the revised model is being used. ``We would still need some more time to find out whether the model is workable,'' he added.

The IMD chief said the country had been divided into three zones - the north-west, north-east and peninsular India. The prediction for this year was that north-west would receive 100 per cent of the long period average rainfall which was around 64.7 cm. of rain. The north-east was also expected to receive 100 per cent of its long period average which was 130.8 cm. of rain while peninsular India was likely to get 96 per cent of its long period average - 86.8 cm. The overall margin of error was estimated at plus-minus 8 per cent.

Another good news was that the drought-prone areas of Rajasthan, the Kutch region in Gujarat and some parts of western Madhya Pradesh - which had not received rain for the last three years - were likely to witness rainfall this year.

Besides, the monsoon would be early this year. While the usual date for the monsoon to hit the Kerala coast was June 1, it had advanced by about a week because of cyclonic storm and low pressure zone in the Arabian Sea. In Delhi, it is expected to arrive by June 29 or 30.

Dr. Kelkar also added that the IMD had divided the country into 28 sub-divisions of which 27 were expected to receive normal to excess rainfall.

Giving details of the past predictions, he said in 1999, the prediction for north-west was 111 per cent while the actual rainfall was 93 per cent. For the north-east, the prediction was 98 per cent while the actual rainfall was 104 per cent and for peninsular India the prediction was 114 per cent while actual rainfall was 92 per cent. Similarly, in 2000, the north-west was predicted to get 102 per cent rainfall and it actually got 94 per cent. The north-east had a prediction of 100 per cent rainfall while actual was 96 per cent that year.

The IMD's predictions for the whole country was 108 per cent for 1999 while the actual rainfall turned out to be 96 per cent. In 2000, there was 92 per cent of rainfall against the 99 per cent predicted.

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