Ground situation prompted decision

By K. K. Katyal

NEW DELHI, MAY 23. The decision to revoke the ceasefire in Jammu and Kashmir is reflective of the Government's assessment that the assumptions with which it started the peace process have not materialised. The concern over the disturbing turn of the ground situation, obviously, has outweighed other factors.

The invitation to Pakistan's Chief Executive, Gen. Pervez Musharraf for talks here is meant to counter negative interpretations (of weakening of commitment to the path of peace and dialogue). It is also intended to put the ball in Pakistan's court.

At one stage, the Government counted on the opportunity to be provided by the SAARC summit for a meeting between the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, and Gen. Musharraf.

The Prime Minister's statements at the time of the Ramzan ceasefire and its subsequent extensions showed a gradual shift from optimism to concern.

When the peace process was initiated, with the announcement (on November 19 last year) of the ceasefire for the duration of the holy month of Ramzan, the mood was one of hope and optimism.

Undeterred by the fate of a similar move by one of the militant groups, New Delhi took the calculated risk. Mr. Vajpayee's statement on that occasion was based on three premises.

One, the steady improvement in the situation in the State, which had heartened the people throughout the country. Two, the longing of ``our brothers and sisters in the State'' for the return of peace and normalcy. Three, growing isolation of the forces of terrorism and separatism.

It concluded with the hope that the gesture would be fully appreciated and violence in the State and infiltration from the Pakistani side would cease.

A month later, on December 20, the day of the first extension, the optimism continued but was slightly tinged by concern. The Prime Minister reported ``some encouraging developments'' after the Ramzan ceasefire but felt that ``certain other aspects remain as our continuing concerns''.

The heartening features included the welcome by the State's people to the ceasefire and the significant expansion of the constituency for peace, decline in terrorist acts and infiltration and ``marked improvement'' in the exchange of fire along the Line of Control.

Among the matters of concern were the activities of organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, causing loss of innocent lives. On balance, the assessment was positive and this led the Prime Minister to express the hope for early initiation of exploratory steps for the resumption of the ``composite dialogue'' with Pakistan. He then spoke of the importance of the ``suitable climate of peace'' for talks.

The mood was noticeably sombre at the time of the second extension of the ceasefire, towards the end of January. The Prime Minister noted the continuance of ``cross-border terrorism'' and regretted that Pakistan had continued to promote, encourage and abet it and had not recognised the demand of time for peace. He identified the Lashkar and the Jaish-e-Mohammed as the major villains.

The last extension - on February 22 - was notable for the warning to the elements interested in scuttling the peace process. Mr. Vajpayee made it ``abundantly clear that the peace process is only for those that wish to benefit from it'' and that ``we will not let this process be derailed, diluted or misused.''

He had this message for the disruptive sections: ``If you inflict injury on any Indian citizen in the State or elsewhere, or commit any act of violence or terrorism, the security forces have clear instructions to act decisively and defeat such intentions.''

Today's decision is seen as an extension of this line.

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