Low turnout, sympathy factor handicaps

By M. R. Venkatesh

CHENNAI, MAY 15. The DMK today began taking stock of its poll debacle with party seniors, former ministers and candidates reporting to the president, Mr. M. Karunanidhi, the underlying dynamics that led to this situation. A mosaic of factors has been responsible for the defeat.

The leadership has been taken aback at the outcome as it expected that the party would get a ``sufficient majority'' to form the Government. Party sources said a late shift of about three to four per cent of the votes resulted in a drastic reversal of the DMK's fortunes in terms of seats won.

In several ways it was a ``sentimental poll'' for the 77-year-old veteran, Mr. Karunanidhi. Apart from making the declaration that this was his ``last election'', he had personally staked so much on his party's performance in the last five years, even to the point of overlooking intra-party dissidence and problems.

Notwithstanding the impression that the DMK's alliance strategy alienated the upper caste Thevar voters in the southern districts, a senior functionary argued that the party had not been expecting Thevar votes in any case. But in the other regions, OBCs' voted for the DMK and ``our tie-up with the Dalit outfits has not affected this position,'' he claimed.

A low turnout, a `sympathy factor' in favour of Ms. Jayalalitha after her nomination papers were rejected and a `vote for change', besides local factors were among the more decisive causes for the DMK's poor performance, the party sources pointed out.

Another `major handicap', according to DMK seniors from the western districts, was the largescale deletion of names of voters from the electoral rolls. For instance, in the western belt, where the DMK drew a blank except in Vellakoil, sizable chunks of voters, who despite getting their elector's photo identity cards, found to their shock that their names had been struck off.

In the north/north-western Vanniyar-dominated belt, the sources conceded, the level of caste polarisation was very high this time, with the AIADMK having an added advantage because of its alliance with the PMK.

Further, in several Assembly segments, dissidents put up independents to wreck the DMK's chances, the sources said. The sacked Minister, Mr. V. Mullaivendan, ``made our lives extremely miserable in the entire Dharmapuri district by sponsoring rebels in disguise,'' confided a DMK candidate from that district. Again in Madurai, the `Azhagiri factor' also played a role.

Mr. Karunanidhi, setting out the DMK's response in a statement here today, said one thing was undoubtedly clear: ``Victory would not have eluded us had our party workers worked still more enthusiastically in campaigning and mobilising the voters.''

He said that while the total number of votes polled by the AIADMK front was 1.40 crores, the DMK front got 1.08 crores and the MDMK 13 lakhs in all. ``From this it is quite evident that voters and the people of Tamil Nadu have not disregarded us. The seats we have got are less, but the hearts supporting us are more,'' argued Mr. Karunanidhi.

``Skilfully hiding'' the defeat of the Communist party in Kerala, of the Congress in West Bengal and that of the PMK in Pondicherry, the Congress and the communists were over- celebrating their victory in Tamil Nadu, Mr. Karunanidhi said. But ``our defeat is not that disheartening,'' he added.

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Section  : Southern States
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