Will his luck run out?

If Mr. Abdurrahman Wahid survives in office it will be nothing short of a miracle. Amit Baruah on the evolving scenario in Indonesia.

THE SURVIVAL of the scholar-politician in office will be nothing short of a miracle. The Indonesian President, Mr. Abdurrahman Wahid, has been abandoned by his allies, including the Vice- President, Ms. Megawati Sukarnoputri, and left wobbly and alone at the top.

These developments were not unexpected. First censured on February 1, it was evident that the President's reply to the House of Representatives (DPR) did not satisfy the lower House of Parliament. And, within the stipulated three months, the DPR issued a second memorandum of censure after which a third will follow - referring the Wahid ``case'' to the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), or the upper House, to take up the impeachment process.

The first set of charges against Mr. Wahid related to his alleged involvement in two separate ``corruption'' scandals; evidence of a rather weak sort was presented against the President. The April 30 memorandum, however, focussed only on the President's style of functioning. It was evident that the deputies had decided to go for the President's jugular.

Around the time the DPR met in Jakarta, several thousand supporters of the President belonging to the Nadhlatul Ulama, a group once headed by Mr. Wahid, gathered in the capital, in a show of support. The threats of violence, mercifully, did not materialise and the activists, most of them coming from east Java, dispersed peacefully.

While the threat of violence has receded, the President, perhaps, is aware that his only support is outside Parliament and not inside it. He did tell his supporters not to indulge in violence, a welcome message for what is seen as a turbulent period in the country's history.

Ms. Megawati decision to withdraw support to Gus Dur, as the President is known, does not seem to have been a sudden decision. Mr. Wahid's style of functioning, often seen as erratic, seems to have led to her decision to join efforts to discipline and, possibly, impeach him.

While there are reports from Jakarta that last-minute efforts to reach a compromise are still being attempted by the President's supporters, Mr. Pramono Anung, a close associate of Ms. Megawati, said in Singapore recently that the Vice-President was not interested in ``power-sharing''. However, Mr. Pramono also made it clear that the Vice-President wanted to act constitutionally and did not want to speed up a ``special session'' of the MPR which could impeach Mr. Wahid.

The decision of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI- P) to go by the book is not in concert with the haste displayed by other factions such as the National Mandate Party (PAN) headed by the MPR Speaker, Mr. Amien Rais. Unlike Ms. Megawati, who has not spoken in public against Mr. Wahid, Mr. Amien Rais has had no hesitation in blasting the President.

Addressing a seminar in Singapore on Thursday, Mr. Rais said: ``The current President was elected by MPR to serve the people and carry out the mandate given to him. He has failed to do so and so it is the MPR's duty to call him to task, and if necessary, to hand over the position to his constitutional successor. That person currently is Mrs. Megawati.''

Mr. Rais, who has Presidential ambitions himself, stated that he did not believe that the Indonesian military (TNI) did not have the ``moral courage'' to intervene in the country's politics in case civilian politicians were unable to manage the nation.

Interestingly, Mr. Pramono from the PDI-P said his party did want to send the military back to barracks. ``The armed forces must be professional and involved in the defence of the country,'' he said.

There is little doubt that the military is waiting and watching. However, for now, it appears that jostling politicians are at the centre stage, not the military. The military does back Ms. Megawati, who is known to back the security forces more than the current President.

Indonesia's neighbours are also carefully looking at the direction the country might take. While so far it has held together despite the problems, Indonesia's well-wishers are hoping for a smooth change at the top - one which will not create more problems for the country. As is well known, Ms. Megawati herself is an untested leader. She does not address people or issues directly. So, you end up in a situation where her policies are articulated through aides and associates.

In a recent article, Mr. Jusuf Wanandi of Jakarta's Centre for Strategic and International Studies, argued: ``The country is starting to burst at the seams with all the recent and ongoing conflicts. Given the importance of the President as the highest executive, an immediate change of leadership is critical... this period of transition is one of catharsis for Indonesia. How it will end is uncertain. It will have to run its course before a turnaround can happen.''

``Patience is called for in assessing Indonesia. Also, the conviction that the country is not falling part,'' Mr. Jusuf Wanandi added.

There can be no two opinions that concerns within and outside Indonesia about the country's future are growing. The next few days are likely to be critical. A smooth transition in the country would do much to assure both Indonesians and outsiders that civilian democrats can still run the show.

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