Iraqi military might, only hype?

By Kesava Menon

BAGHDAD, MAY 12. There is an anti-aircraft gun mounted on the plinth atop the massive gates before the Presidential palace in this city as indeed there are similar emplacements in far more innocuous sites all over the country.

But, aside from the fact that it would take an extremely foolhardy gunner to man the weapon atop the completely exposed Presidential gate, the outward displays of Iraq's martial prowess hardly seem to justify its reputation as the most ferocious entity in West Asia.

U.S. Generals are reportedly reviewing their procedures on the maintenance of the ``no-fly zones'' in two separate segments of Iraqi airspace. According to these reports, the U.S. military men feel that the costs of maintaining the northern no-fly zone (above the 36th Parallel) do not match up to the benefits and are thinking of cutting down the fighter-bomber sorties that they operate over this area.

At the same time, they are reported to believe that the southern no-fly zone (below the 33rd Parallel) continues to be of great benefit.

The northern no-fly zone was ostensibly imposed so as to prevent Iraq from using its air forces to savage the Kurds who live in this part of their country.

These Kurds, split into two rival political factions, are heavily armed and can presumably protect themselves from the Iraqi military if the latter were not able to use its air power and armour against them. The U.S. and U.K. planes flying 30,000 feet above the ground and miles away from the Baghdad end of the northern no-fly zone can destroy any Iraqi air or armoured thrust into the north of the country and though Iraq did succeed in making a foray a few years ago, it has pulled its armour out and has not repeated the action.

Therefore, the Kurds are relatively safe from a major threat by the Iraqi military. But the main question is whether there is a real threat from the Iraqi military at all.

The Government in Baghdad is well aware of a few facts. One is that the two Kurdish factions are so bitterly opposed to each other and also so equally avaricious that they can easily be played off against each other or placated by being allowed to enrich themselves through oil smuggling to Turkey.

Secondly, the Iraqi Government knows well that the U.S. will never support the Iraqi Kurds' ultimate goal of setting up an independent State since that would set off similar demands from Kurds living in the other countries of West Asia.

Neither does Baghdad seem unduly bothered about putative U.S. plans to use the Kurd-populated areas as the staging post for an armed uprising against the Government of Mr. Saddam Hussein.How the Shias, who are not armed like the Kurds, could be protected from the Iraq Government's gunmen by allied planes flying miles away has never been adequately explained. From what could be seen during a day's trip to the south, the people there are so quiescent that the Iraqi Government could probably control them with a few contingents of lightly armed troops. But the no-fly zone operations have been in place for a decade and the secondary benefits they are seen to provide are now considered a better justification than the original one. The southern no-fly zone, the U.S. officials now say, is necessary to provide warning should Iraq ever threaten to attack Kuwait or Saudi Arabia again.

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