CPI(M) questions DD exit polls methodology

By Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI, MAY. 12. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has ridiculed the exit polls telecast on Doordarshan and questioned its methodology adopted to arrive at the projections.

The party criticised Doordarshan's decision to telecast the exit polls conducted by an agency whose predictions in previous polls too were inaccurate. ``Doordarshan has a history of making such inaccurate poll predictions and it creates misleading impression which can influence the political atmosphere in the country,'' the CPI(M) politburo member Mr. Prakash Karat told The Hindu.

Even though the CPI(M)-led Left Front in West Bengal has been given the advantage by the pollster, the party is of the opinion the sampling technique adopted in each of the States, which went to polls on May 10, would not give correct results. Even in West Bengal it hopes to win at least in 189 Assembly segments the Front led in 1999 Lok Sabha elections, if not repeating the last Assembly results of 200 plus seats.

Mr. Karat said the exit polls predicted in Kerala the ruling Left Democratic Front would end up with a mere 37 seats and a vote share of 42 per cent against the United Democratic Front's 100 seats and 48 per cent vote share.

He said that barring 1991, the difference in vote share in Kerala since 1987 had never crossed two per cent. ``Where has this six per cent come from?'' he asked.

Mr. Karat said that such a swing should result in some 80 plus seat difference between the LDF and UDF.

In 1987, the difference in vote share between the two Fronts was a mere 0.61 per cent in favour of the LDF, in 1991 after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, it was 2.27 in favour of the UDF and in the 1996 Assembly polls, the LDF gained 1.15 per cent of vote share.

Mr. Sitaram Yechury, another politburo member, said that in Tamil Nadu where the exit polls gave 48 per cent share to the AIADMK front against 47 per cent to the DMK, the sampling did show the urban-rural divide. In addition, the huge turnout at Ms. Jayalalitha's rally in rural areas indicated their preference. ``This neck and neck situation appears doubtful,'' Mr Yechury said.

Citing previous predictions by various pollsters, including the agency which conducted the exit polls for DD, he said that in almost all cases the projections went wrong.

For instance in the last Bihar Assembly elections, it was predicted that the BJP-NDA alliance would secure 195 of the 324 seats while it got 123 seats and the ruling RJD alliance won 125 seats. Similarly, projections for the 1998 Assembly elections to Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi went awry.

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