All eyes on voter turnout

By K. Ramachandran

CHENNAI, MAY 8. An over-riding question among political observers and pollsters on the eve of the Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu is whether the present mood of public apathy will lead to low voter turnout.

But if one were to count on a remark by the Chief Electoral Officer, Dr. Mrutyunjay Sarangi, the turnout could be significantly higher than 1996. The reason: people could take a fancy for the newly-introduced electronic voting machines. The other day during a press conference, Dr. Sarangi remarked that people might come in more numbers to vote just to see the EVMs and how they work.

In that case, it will mark a break away from a series of low voter turn-out elections in the past decade.

In 1989, the voter turnout was 69.44 per cent; in 1991, nearly 63.83 per cent of the eligible voters cast their franchise. Last time around, i.e., in 1996, the polling percentage was 66.95.

The lowest voter turn-out ever in Tamil Nadu was 61.56 per cent, in the dramatic 1977 elections. Held after six years and in the aftermath of the infamous Emergency, it brought the AIADMK led by M.G. Ramachandran to power.

In the 1980 election, there was a 3.3 per cent increase in poll, when the AIADMK swept back to power.

Another nearly 9 per cent increase in 1984 saw the AIADMK come back with bigger majority, a few months after Indira Gandhi assassination.

But a drop in 1989, to 69.44 per cent, the DMK then in the Opposition came to power. A dramatic six per cent drop in 1991, saw the DMK voted out, as the AIADMK rode the Rajiv Assassination wave.

A three per cent surge, to 66.95 per cent polling in 1996 saw a massive anti-incumbency wave and the AIADMK lost almost everywhere.

The question remains, who benefits from a higher voter turnout- the ruling party or the Opposition?

Normally, observers say, a larger turnout goes against the incumbent.

Tamil Nadu will have to wait for another four days to see whether this prediction can come true, especially if more voters want to test the newly introduced EVMs.

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Section  : State Elections
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