Stage set for a tough fight

By C. Gouridasan Nair

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, MAY 8. It is a grim scenario that Kerala presents on the election eve for the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), but the electoral battle in most constituencies in the State is closer than many of the pre-poll surveys suggest.

The LDF leaders refuse to admit it, but incumbency has been weighing down on them towards the latter part of the campaign for the May 10 election. The Congress-led Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) has naturally found it the best campaign plank and the chances of the LDF returning to power would depend mainly on how successful the UDF leadership has been in exploiting this factor besides, of course, the way the BJP tilts the balance in the score in odd constituencies where the margin of victory of the two fronts is marginal.

The LDF is giving it a big heave on the home stretch in the hope that people would once again repose faith on it.

The LDF argument is that if at all there is an anti-incumbency sentiment among the electorate, it is more perceived than real. It has valid reasons to think so.

An objective analysis would reveal that the LDF had acquitted itself reasonably well in Government. However, it also remains a fact that where it faltered, it did so miserably.

On the positive side, it could carry out decentralisation of powers with remarkable success, make the State power-surplus, add new vigour to the tourism sector and keep the public distribution system intact shouldering a heavy financial burden.

But pluses seldom stay imprinted in public memory. The minuses do. The Plus Two imbroglio, for instance. Thousands of families across the State were on tenterhooks for days on end on account of the messy manner in which the whole issue was handled by the Government.

It was a case of the tail wagging the dog as the CPI(M) and the rest of the front had to follow the course charted out for it by the Kerala Congress (J).

No different was the eminently avoidable controversy over sanctioning of new engineering colleges in the private sector. The alleged links between some middle-rung CPI(M) leaders and the liquor mafia and the severe financial crunch that the State experiences now have all contributed to create the impression that the Nayanar Government was bad from start to finish.

When the poll campaign began, the LDF seemed to have little to worry on the incumbency front. The CPI(M) decision to field a relatively new team was received well by the masses. The LDF's success in bringing out its manifesto and candidate list without much ado was also widely appreciated.

But when the UDF got its act together and began mounting a scathing attack on the Government over issues such as alleged corruption in the sanctioning of Plus Two courses, the Nadapuram incidents, financial profligacy and alleged use of power by the CPI(M) to amass wealth, the LDF found itself on the defensive.

On top of all this, almost every other community save the Nair Service Society (NSS) and some of the Christian denominations came out in support of the UDF. The effectiveness of such calls might be marginal, but taut political divide, even marginal shifts, can make or mar the chances of individuals and parties.

The UDF's alleged nexus with the BJP and its open alliance with the PDP have made things even more difficult for the LDF. Both the UDF and the BJP leadership have been professing innocence about the LDF charge, but the commonality of their interests is there for all to see.

There could be a subtle divergence in the BJP and the RSS perceptions of options available to them in Kerala, but that would be more in terms of nuances than in the general intend.

The BJP leaders have been speaking about a hung Assembly and some "surprise results", the insinuation being that some important leaders from both sides will be defeated this time.

The hung Assembly theme may have to do with the BJP-RSS combine's hopes of whittling the two major players, Congress and the CPI(M), thereby emboldening their partners to assert themselves.

The combine's gameplan appears to be have an Assembly where the winning combination would have only a majority of a few. Kerala has already been witness to the convulsions in the UDF during the 1982-87 period under similar circumstances.

If the BJP plan works, Kerala would be in for a period of serious instability. That is where the LDF call for a vote for stability acquires more than ordinary significance.

The BJP-RSS combine might be hoping to fish in these troubled waters. The "surprise results" may also have to do with this agenda and might mean that the combine has targetted leaders on both sides of the divide.

The question whether the BJP would make it to the Assembly this time, a subject of intense speculation in the media, would depend on whether or not it has entered into a deal with either of the two Fronts.

In the 1991 Assembly election, there was a deal between the Congress and the BJP, but it fell through because the Congress did not hold its end up. The BJP is unlikely to fall for such wiles now.

The possible outcome apart, there have been two interesting aspects to the poll campaign this time. The first is that the question of local development has by and large overshadowed the larger political issues in many parts of the State.

This has made the electoral contest in many places constituency- specific. Even in a constituency like Cherthala, Mr. A. K. Antony is on the defensive because of the widespread feeling that he could not deliver as an MLA.

The ruling front nominees are also not free from such worries because the financial crunch had resulted in several projects getting stuck at the final stage leaving the people unhappy.

The second is the legitimisation of the PDP which was, till the other day, a political untouchable for most parties. The PDP cadres have taken upon themselves the task of mobilising Muslim votes on behalf of the UDF, particularly in southern Kerala.

What this would imply for the Muslim League in the days to come would be interesting to watch.

The emergence of the INL from the shadows of the two major fronts has also added to the charm of the political battle this time. After fighting a bitter faction feud over, among other things, the INL, the CPI(M) has now been forced to seek out Mr. Ebrahim Sulaiman Sait's party to mobilise the anti-Muslim League vote in the Muslim belt.

Whether and how the CPI(M) would carry the tie-up to its logical conclusion would also be interesting to look out for.

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Section  : State Elections
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