Kerala all set for battle royale

By K.M.Tampi

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, MAY. 8. Kerala seems to be all set for a battle royale of such intensity, the likes of which people might probably have witnessed 24 years ago in the election held immediately after the withdrawal of the emergency imposed during the Indira Gandhi regime.

Though the fight is basically between the titans, who have been striding the political arena of Kerala for over two decades - the LDF and the UDF - they are now not prepared to completely write off the BJP.

Notwithstanding that, the commencement of the countdown for polling finds the UDF in an upbeat mood and the LDF putting up a brave front in spite of its dispiritedness. The atmosphere in the BJP camp is one of mysterious optimism.

The UDF has every reason to be in a buoyant mood. It has two plus points right from the beginning - the role which economics was going to play and the incumbency factor. That economics, not in an abstract sense but in mundane monetary terms, was going to influence the coming election more than politics was a foregone conclusion. The Government was facing acute financial difficulties for almost half its term. During the initial period, it managed by taking loans from wherever and at whatever interest available and by diverting funds. There were rumours that it even diverted the Kargil fund, though the Government denied it. After some time it could not continue putting up pretences. Almost every payment from that to contractors running into crores for completed work to social security pensions was held up. The affluent sections like the contractors went to court and obtained orders for getting their payment. But it required more than one order and a warning and the suicide of at least one contractor for the Government to act. There was no defiance behind it but sheer helplessness, according to some sources.

It is the delay on the part of the Government in making payments to the financially weaker sections especially the social security pensions which may turn out to be its bane. A person dependent on the Government spins his dreams which include unlike that of the fortunate a square meal a day on the basis of what is due to him from it. And when it is not forthcoming it is not merely he alone who suffers but his entire family of four or five. The general impression is that this is what is going to affect the LDF worst in the coming elections. There is strong resentment at the indulgence of the Government which included purchase of luxury cars for the ministers even in the face of such an acute financial crisis. Whatever decision a Government takes antagonises one section or other. That is where the incumbency factor comes into play. The UDF has been able to exploit many such decisions taken by the Government. It was right when these two crucial factors were favourable to the UDF, that a group in the Congress(I) queered the pitch by washing dirty linen in public. Nobody thought that the groups in the Congress(I) would be able to restore their normal relations after that. The fact they have succeeded in doing not only that but also in closing their ranks and moving ahead as a single entity serves to show the party's resilience and probably cunningness as well.

The victory predicted for the UDF by half a dozen pre- poll surveys is not therefore entirely baseless. According to them, the Congress(I)-led coalition will win anything between 80 and 90 seats in the 140 member House. The reports about the outcome of the surveys and the euphoric mood in the UDF camp have demoralised the LDF to an extent. But it is maintaining a brave front. None other than the Chief Minister, Mr.E.K.Nayanar, who is not contesting the election is heading the cheer leaders of the LDF camp. He has claimed that the chances of the LDF have brightened and that it will secure 75 in the place of the 72 seats which, according to his earlier calculations, it was likely to win. It is highlighting the corruption issue in the context of a special court's ruling against a prominent UDF leader and rubbing in the achievements of the people's plan programme to win over the maximum number of votes. The efficient manner in which the LDF completed its seat sharing exercise with the other constituents of the front, the CPI(M) announced its candidates by giving a fair deal to new faces and women and launched its campaign much ahead of the UDF have boosted its image considerably. But in spite of all that the LDF itself seems to have accepted the idea of being a runner-up.

While there are bases for the moods in the LDF and UDF camps, a mystery of sorts shrouds the enthusiasm in the BJP camp as the party is playing its cards close to its chest. The confidence with which even national leaders of the party have been asserting that the election will produce a hung Assembly and that it will be called to play a crucial role indicate that it has something up its sleeve. Time alone will show what it is.

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