Is there a geographical factor to party support in Tamil Nadu?

By V. Jayanth

CHENNAI, MAY 8. As the campaign for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections ended this evening, it appears to be a much closer contest than it did at the beginning of `Elections 2001.' Party managers now believe that their victory or defeat could hinge on not just voter turnout but the critical `undecided voters.'

Analysts and psephologists wonder if there is a geographical factor underlying the support base for political parties or is it just the caste and community equation in these regions.

A closer study shows that some districts have tended to remain the strongholds of a particular party while the caste consolidations might have changed from one election to another. This has also to do with the nature of the alliances that the major parties forge during the elections.

Opinion polls conducted during the earlier phase of the campaign period tended to give the AIADMK-led front a clear lead, with some of them even suggesting a `sweep'. But the more recent surveys seem to have narrowed down the gap considerably, with a couple of polls giving the DMK combine a slight advantage.

A look at the surveys, conducted by pollsters, and the assessments carried out by political parties suggest that the DMK and the AIADMK could have an edge in about a dozen districts each. The contest may be too close to call in at least six to eight districts. In the remaining areas, the outcome may depend on the impact of the MDMK and the party's support base it will cut into.

Some districts, where the DMK-led NDA seems have an edge are Chennai, Cuddalore, Kancheepuram, Kanyakumari, Nagapattinam, Perambalur, Pudukottai, Tiruchi, Tiruvarur, Vellore and Ramanathapuram.

The AIADMK-led front appears to be well-placed in Coimbatore, Dharmapuri, Erode, Namakkal, the Nilgiris, Salem, Tuticorin, Tiruvannamalai, Trivallur and Villupuram, among others.

Surveys point to a close fight in districts like Dindigul, Theni and Madurai. The MDMK's performance could determine the outcome of the polls in areas like Tirunelveli, Karur and Ariyalur.

Analysts explain that the DMK's strength or performance can be linked to its alliances - the expected consolidation of Dalit votes in the areas where its southern ally, the Puthiya Tamizhagam, and the northern partner, the Dalit Panthers of India, have their influence and presence.

There may be pockets of influence of other new caste- based parties like the Makkal Tamil Desam and the New Justice Party. The BJP too has spread its wings in the deep-south, as well as pockets in the west. But basically, the DMK has enjoyed a steady support in districts like Chennai, the erstwhile North Arcot and the central parts of the State.

As for the AIADMK, it has always considered the south as its fort and its leader, Ms. Jayalalitha, seems to have counted on that by extending her first phase of campaigning in that region. The western parts, including Erode, Salem and Namakkal, have been the other known bastions of the party from the MGR days.

The TMC and the Congress should have their own traditional vote bases but these have tended to decline or shift, depending on the alliances. Thanjavur and some of the southern districts could therefore be expected to add strength to the AIADMK front.

The MDMK, going it alone, will be testing its real strength on the ground this time. As its leader, Mr. Vaiko, hails from the Tirunelveli tract, the party is expected to do well in that area. It remains to be seen if its votes dent the DMK or the AIADMK the most. It may vary from constituency to constituency, depending on the local factors, including caste and the candidate.

By and large, the surveys have confirmed that the DMK's strength lies in urban areas and that of the AIADMK in the rural belt. No wonder, the AIADMK has left most of the urban seats to its allies. It is said that a higher voter turnout could result in a change of Government, while a lower percentage of voting could favour the incumbent Government. Though the people seem to recognise the performance of the DMK Government this time, there is also the desire for change. All that together has made it a keen tussle.

Whatever the mandate of the people, the political parties have to go through the phase of suspense and tension till the results are out on Sunday.

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