Surprise outcome in Montenegro polls

By Vaiju Naravane

PARIS, APRIL 23. Will the tiny, 600,000-strong republic of Montenegro leave the Yugoslav Federation and cause yet another grand upheaval in the Balkans?

The answer to this question is less sure today after legislative polls held on Sunday gave a very slim majority to the President, Mr. Milo Djukanovic's Socialist Party and its allies.

Opinion polls had consistently given Mr. Djukanovic's Socialist- led outgoing coalition a very substantial lead. But the victory falls far short of a convincing majority and comes nowhere near the ``over two thirds majority'' promised by Mr. Djukanovic' spokesman.

The election has been seen as a referendum on the question of Montenegro's break away from the Yugoslav Federation, where Mr. Djukanovic claims the smaller Montenegro is overwhelmingly dominated by its powerful neighbour Serbia. Serbia is 15 times larger than Montenegro. Mr. Djukanovic says there can be no parity between the two and therefore no hope for equality for Montenegro citizens.

The anti-independence coalition of parties has polled around 35 per cent of the votes as compared to the Socialist alliance which has won about 48 per cent of the votes with 50 per cent of the ballots already counted.

Waving to huge crowds that had gathered in downtown Podgorica, the Montenegrin capital, Mr. Djukanovic said: ``We have won. We want our country. We have taken a huge step towards independence and freedom.''

But anti-independence militants who fear more refugee movement, more Balkan wars, fighting and displacement, wish to remain in the Yugoslav Federation. They have been casting doubts on the extent of the Djukanovic win and say they will fight all independence plans tooth and nail.

``The results which we have achieved means we shall remain in Yugoslavia,'' Vuskan Simonovic of the movement ``Together for Yugoslavia'' told The Hindu. There was jubilation in Serbia too where the Federal President, Mr. Vojislav Kostounica, has issued warnings to Montenegro not to contemplate secession. ``The elections are a big surprise, considering the predictions given by the polling institutes. Montenegro is completely divided and following results such as these there is no point in holding a referendum,'' said Serbia's Deputy Prime Minister, Mr. Zarko Korac.

Montenegro is a true mosaic of different ethnic groups including Montenegrins, Muslims of Turkish and Bosnian origin, Serbs and Albanians. In the event of independence, almost each community would stake a claim for a province or perhaps (as with the Albanians) statehood in conjunction with other majority communities in the area. The Serbs might want to join Serbia while the Albanians are already militating for a Greater Albania to include Albania proper, Kosovo and Albanian dominated areas in Montenegro and Macedonia.

The results have been disappointing for Mr. Djukanovic and if he wishes to press ahead with independence as he has claimed - a referendum will most probably be held on 13 July - he will have to include more parties in his governing coalition.

Western governments who have been watching the results of the election with bated breath are today heaving a sigh of relief. For the moment at least, a further break up of the rump Yugoslavia, with all its accompanying misery, bloodshed and horror appears to have been averted.

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Section  : International
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