W. Asia continues to be volatile

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), APRIL 19. A barrage of rockets fired from Iran into Iraq, an Israeli invasion of and withdrawal from Palestinian territories, heightened tension on Israel's borders with its northern Arab neighbours combined with talks and even agreements to sort out various issues. This has been a routine week in West Asia.

Not all of the developments mentioned above are connected with each other except in so far as they have occurred within the same region. But West Asia provides ample examples of how events and developments that seem totally unconnected with the others do still impact on each other. The Scud missile barrage that Iran is reported to have fired into Iraq can be taken as an example. Iran has routinely hit bases of dissident groups, especially the People's Mujahideen, who have found shelter on Iraqi territory and usually after a spate of attacks by the rebels within Iran. Yesterday's missile attack was not unusual expect in the numbers used upwards of 50 surface-to- surface missiles were said to have been fired though it has occasioned the usual cycle of diplomatic protests. Iraq is unlikely to make much more of an issue since they need to keep Iran mollified.

There is no real connection between this missile attack and the signing of a landmark agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia this week. This agreement, singed by the Interior Minister of Iran and Saudi Arabia, has taken two years to negotiate and provides for co-operation in the fight against terrorism, narcotics smuggling, illegal immigration and money laundering. Saudi-Iranian interaction in these respects will take place largely on the waters of the Persian Gulf and will not need to touch upon Iraq. Yet, for Iraq, this budding Iranian-Saudi friendship represents the closing of a great circle of events.

Saudi Arabia backed Iraq in its war with Iran that was waged from 1980 to 89 but has still not officially concluded it since no treaty has been signed. Then, when the relations between the Saudis and Iraq became hostile following the invasion of Kuwait, Iran did not rush to embrace the country that lies on the further flank of Iraq. Iran stayed aloof sharing with Iraq strong reservations (to put it mildly) about the close ties between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Although the differences about the U.S. role in the region have not been removed Iran and Saudi Arabia have moved into a new phase of their relationship with the Interior Ministers' agreement. This agreement has no connection whatsoever with the missile strikes, yet they both reveal how Iraq's strategic situation has changed in the last two decades.

The Saudi-Iranian agreement does not necessarily presage anything very significant for another power that is very active in protecting its interests in the region. There was some speculation before the Saudi Interior Minister's departure for Iran that the new agreement might pave the way for the extradition of some people who are believed to have master-minded bomb attacks on U.S. citizens in Saudi Arabia in 1996 and are said to have escaped to Iran. The Saudi Minister, Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz, scotched such speculation and went further to state that his Ministry was not proceeding on the assumption that those responsible for the blasts had crossed over to Iran. Once on Iranian soil, Prince Nayef criticised the U.S. for its partiality towards Israel and said that the Muslim world would unite behind Iranian leadership if the U.S. did not shed its bias.

Once again the Interior Minister's agreement does not presage any sort of a strategic partnership between Saudi Arabia and Iran much less a partnership against the U.S. The volatility of West Asia ensures that no event or development in any part of it will fail to have an impact on events elsewhere in the region.

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