West Asia... on the brink

Several developments over the last fortnight should have tended to reverse the slide into chaos... Mr. Arafat and Mr. Sharon interpreted these in a way that suited their own rhetorical standpoint, says Kesava Menon.

IT WAS a week when the Israeli-Palestinian confrontation appeared poised to spin totally out of control. Both sides upped the calibre of the weapons they deployed against each other and the methods and rhetoric involved with their use. It was also a week when the first glimmer of a return to calm began to appear.

Israel has used helicopter gunships and tanks to strike at Palestinian targets on a few occasions over the six months of confrontation. But towards the end of March and over the first week of April these heavy weapons were being used with far greater frequency. For their part, the Palestinians added mortar shells to the stones and bullets they have been showering on the Israelis. In the beginning of the uprising both sides were relatively careful about directing their fire at actual combatants though there were many innocent bystanders among the killed and injured. Of late, the discrimination has frayed with Palestinian militants carrying out suicide bomb attacks clearly intended to hit mainly civilians and Israelis demolishing the homes and fruit groves of Palestinians who did not appear to have anything much to do with the violence. Israeli settlers in the West Bank were also beginning to take the law into their own hands.

The rhetoric had also begun to change. A war-crazy Minister in the Israeli Cabinet, sickeningly nick-named Gandhi, was calling for the bombing of the Palestinian leader, Mr. Yasser Arafat's residence, the full Cabinet authorised a pro-active campaign, the chief of its army was talking increasingly of a war-like situation and their troops had begun to intrude into territory turned over to full Palestinian control. On the other side, the incitement bordering dangerously on racism had not abated, the religious overtones to militancy were getting more pronounced and Mr. Arafat (at the Arab summit) indicated an increasing proximity to hard-line states like Syria.

Several developments over the last fortnight should have tended to reverse the slide into chaos. They did not have the hoped-for immediate impact and it is difficult to assess the manner in which these developments contributed to the more hopeful signs available by the week-end. They should have had an effect, because they produced influences that would have come to bear on Mr. Arafat and Israel's Prime Minister, Mr. Ariel Sharon, neither of whom has lost control over their security forces or their people. But the two leaders held out interpretations of these developments that suited their own rhetorical standpoint. It is also possible that both leaders realised that they had to pull matters back now if they were to retain control over events.

One development that took place was the Arab summit in Amman on March 27-28. During the summit, Mr. Arafat did cosy up to Syria's President, Mr. Bashar al Assad, and they agreed to bury their differences. But the summit as a whole failed to extend substantial support to the extant that the Palestinians could have hoped for. There are also reports that Egypt's President, Mr. Hosni Mubarak, and Jordan's King Abdullah told Mr. Arafat that they neither believed that the violent uprising would produce results nor would they allow their countries to be dragged into the wider conflict that looms if the uprising continues to rage. Immediately after the summit Mr. Mubarak travelled to Washington and persuaded the U.S. President, Mr. George W. Bush, to formulate a more balanced assessment of the responsibility that Israel and the Palestinians bore for the on- going unrest. Mr. Mubarak also extracted a promise that the U.S. would be actively engaged in peace-making between the two sides. Within a couple of days of the Mubarak-Bush meeting, Israel's Foreign Minister, Mr. Shimon Peres, met with leading Palestinian negotiators in Athens. Despite his very strong pro-peace inclinations, Mr. Peres told the Palestinians that it was impossible for the Israel Cabinet to re-start negotiations on substantive issues so long as the violence continued unabated.

Everything could still go horribly wrong. But as the week-end approached it did seem as if the two sides would begin to try and implement the Sharm-el-Sheikh agreement of last November. As per this agreement the Authority is to re-arrest Islamic militants let out of its jails, order its securitymen not to fire on Israelis, order them to stop other Palestinians from confronting the Israelis and stop incitement over public radio and TV. For its part, Israel will have to pull back its armoured forces from the vicinity of Palestinian towns and villages and end the closure of the Palestinian territories. If these steps are taken in the next few days both sides might be in a position to consider the Taba agreement of December that provides the outline for a final settlement.

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Section  : Opinion
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