South China Sea - a hot spot

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

WASHINGTON, APRIL 5. If there is the temptation to believe that the standoff between the U.S. and China will be resolved ``soon'' in the light of the expressions of ``regret'', there are enough number of people who believe that this need not be the case. And looking beyond this mess, there is a realisation that bilateral relations have been pushed back.

China is unlikely to get an outright apology from the Bush Administration even as Washington might try to re-finesse its statement of regret over a period of time so as to be acceptable to Beijing. And for an administration that has generally shunned away from the concept of ``Special Envoys'', at least one Japanese newspaper is reporting that the President, Mr. George W Bush, is thinking of sending his father, Mr. George H.W.Bush, to China. The Mainichi Shimbun quickly notes that American officials do not think this will be the case.

The accident brings to the fore a number of things even if all of them cannot be woven together. For those following this part of the world, there has long been the contention that the South China Seas and the Spratlys will be a major bone of contention in the 21st century. China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines and the Sultanate of Brunei have competing claims to the Spratlys and over a period of time many of the nations have sought to buy ``insurance'' - interestingly American!

That the mid-air collision may have nothing to do directly with what is going on in the Spratlys does not diminish the threat of big and medium powers squaring off one day in those group of islands and islets which are said to be extremely rich in oil and natural gas reserves but have to be content with only bird droppings thus far.

The U.S.-China run in brings to the fore yet another element of an ongoing rivalry between the two major powers - China increasingly possessive of its military hardware, notably its destroyers and submarines and the U.S. military keen on finding out more. If a Taipei Times report is anything to go by, the American EP-3E Aries II surveillance aircraft was trying to learn as much as possible from the newly acquired Russian Sovremenny class destroyer which is equipped with Sunburn anti-ship missiles.

Military officials and analysts are saying that flying near the Coast of a country is nothing new even if playing ``bumper cars'' in the air is not a common phenomenon. Those familiar with the hey days of the Cold War recall the frequency with which the Americans and Soviets used to play this game - surveillance planes needling the radars and jets scrambling. The difference in recent days, it is being pointed out, is that the Chinese have become more aggressive. Seen in this context, the Pentagon would like to argue that it was their surveillance plane that was the victim, not the other way around as Beijing sees it.

The real danger is not how the officials of Washington and Beijing sort out the mess and in the shortest possible time; but in the political fallouts of a lingering shouting match. As it is, evidence is mounting that the right wing in the U.S. may be just about ``taking over'' this China debate pushing the more sober minds to the sidelines.

If the political circus that has been witnessed during the annual ritual over renewal of the Most Favoured Nation status to China over the years is anything to go by, this pales into insignificance if rhetoric on Capitol Hill in the last two days. The Bush White House, while happy of getting ``good marks'' from law makers for the handling of the standoff, cannot politically afford to let the focus shift to Capitol Hill.

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Section  : International
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