Blair for polls in April?

By Hasan Suroor

LONDON, FEB. 18. Will it be April 5 or May 3? That's the debate in political and media circles over the timing of the British general elections with even those who pretend to know hesitating to put their money on the polling date.

The elections are to be held a year ahead of the schedule, prompting Labour's critics to accuse the Prime Minister, Mr. Tony Blair, of ``cowardice'' and suggest that he is not confident of sustaining the pro-Labour mood for another year.

For months, the assumption has been that the elections would be on May 3, exactly four years after Labour was swept to power in what was one of the most humiliating defeats for the Tories in post-War Britain. But with the economy booming - unemployment is at its lowest in years - and Labour leading the Tories by an unprecedented 21 points in opinion polls, rumours started a week ago that Mr. Blair may be tempted to be ``over and done with it'' as early as April - and the magic date of April 5 was floated, the only explanation being that like May 3, April 5 is also a Thursday.

The speculation was heightened this week with the announcement that the Chancellor, Mr. Gordon Brown, would present his Budget on March 7, leaving enough time for a campaign. Moreover, by April 1, many of the benefits of what is billed as a please-all- budget would start flowing into the voters' pockets. It is also argued that both Labour and Tories have already launched their campaign and might find it difficult to sustain it until May with voter fatigue compounding the problem. A longer campaign would also mean more money.

The Tories, however, would prefer May - the joke is that they would prefer no elections at all - hoping to improve their popularity ratings in the meantime.

Meanwhile, even as the Tory leader, Mr William Hague, continued to maintain that contrary to all indications, his party can still pull it off, he was reported to be under pressure from within his party to try and limit the damage, and according to The Independent ,he has been put on notice that if the Labour majority is not substantially reduced, his leadership could be at risk.

The rival factions within the party - one led by the shadow Chancellor, Mr. Michael Portillo, and the other by the shadow Home Secretary, Ms. Ann Widdecombe - are said to be sharpening their knives and the gloves would be off - first thing after the party's certain defeat in the April 5/May 3 elections.

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