Where do little boys come from?

ONE of the hot topics of recent times has been the alarming drop in the "sex ratio" between 1981 and 1991; that is, the number of females alive in India compared to the number of males. That there has been and continues to be serious discrimination against girls and women is widely known. The question, if things are getting better - or worse.

According to the 1981 Census, there were about 934 females in India for every thousand males. In 1991, there were only 927. Had the ratio not fallen, there would have been 3.3 million more women alive than were counted by the Census in 1991. The rest had simply been bumped off, we are told; they were either killed or simply allowed to die. A great number of girls are said to have been killed even before they were born; as soon as the lab tests showed the unborn foetus to be female.

But there are some odd things about this story. As many as two million of the "missing women" were more than ten years old in 1991; and, therefore, I would imagine, less at risk than in their tender years. No doubt girls would thereafter have to face additional marriage and pregnancy related risks; but still, compared to the odds against them when they were younger, they would now at least have a fighting chance.

The deficit of girls in the 0-9 age group in 1991 was only about 1.3 million. Interestingly, both in 1981 and in 1991, the sex ratio for little children (aged 5-9) was worse than the ratio for very little children (aged 0-4). In the 1970s, girls born after 1975 were doing better than girls born before. There were 978 girls aged 0-4 in 1981, for every thousand boys; but only 941 for boys aged 5-9. This pattern repeats itself in the 1991 Census; girls born after the mid-1980s were doing less well than those born after (sex ratio of 955 for 0-4 age group; for 0-9, a mere 933). This is very odd; (when presumably, there was an increase in sex determination tests and foeticide) were better off than those born before. The sex ratio for the 0-4 age group was 955; for 5-9, a mere 938. This too, is odd. It should have been the other way around in both the 1970s and the 1980s if the sex ratio for children had indeed been getting worse over time (because more girls were getting bumped off before or after birth and/or because improvements in primary care were reaching the boys quicker than they reached the girls, or for other reasons); specially since it is precisely the girls aged 0-4 who are supposed to be most vulnerable, relative to boys. Afterwards, when they are in the 5-9 age group, their prospects of survival vis a vis boys are believed to be somewhat better.

But the really fascinating thing about the overall drop in the sex ratio between 1981 and 1991 is the way that Census data keep bringing males into being from thin air. Normally, one expects every batch or cohort to become smaller from one decade to another. Because some of them will die. However, according to Census data, there were 3.7 million more boys in the 10-19 age group in 1991 than there were in the 0-9 age group in 1981. The figure for girls, however went down, as is to be expected - by more than 3 million.

This sort of extravagant conjuring up of boys is also to be found when one compares the number of 20-29 year old men in 1981 with 30-39 year old men in 1991. The increase in their number this time around is 2.7 million. The only difference is that this time the number of women too went up; although only by a measly 19,635.

One reason for this phenomenon could be the mis-reporting of age. One can try to correct for this by systematically comparing the number of males and females alive in the 0-9 age group in 1981 with the 10-19 age group in 1991; the 10-19 group in 1981 with the 20-29 group in 1991, and so on; and then aggregating the increments or decrements across age groups. The results are startling.

Though 7.2 million 10-19 year old boys in 1981 never made it into the 20-29 age group in 1991, in every other cohort below 40 in 1981, males seem to have grown and prospered. Not only was there no decline in the size of male cohorts between one decade and another; there were an astonishing 6.7 million more "incremental" males around.

Overall, comparing the underforties in 1981 with the underfifties in 1991 (leaving aside those aged 0-9 in 1991), there is a modest decline of about half a million males, while a very large number of girls and women "vanished" over this period, as is only to be expected: more than five million.

The loss due to attrition for males under forty, between 1981 and 1991, was a mere 1.9 per thousand; for women under forty, the "death rate" over the same period was as high as 20.4 per thousand. The amount by which males thus magically outpaced females over the 1980s (4.7 million), is far greater than the 3.3 million "missing women", overall, we started out with.

The picture does not change very much if we compare the underfifties in the class of 1981 with the undersixties in 1991. There are still just as many, far too many, old boys around in 1991 than one would expect.

We should, therefore, to begin with, try to puzzle out the mystery about where all those boys come from, before wallowing in grief about the sad fate of all those "missing women".

SUDHANSHU RANADE

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