Warne's figures don't tell the real tale

By Malcolm Conn

MELBOURNE, FEB. 12. Shane Warne's ultimate challenge, to finally perform against India, is a microcosm of the last frontier Australia faces when a 14-man squad leaves on Tuesday for a seven-week tour.

Warne needs solid performances in the three Tests to complete a clean sweep of domination across batsmen from around the world. Likewise Australia requires a series victory to claim that over the last decade this awesome side has beaten everyone everywhere.

The two are interlinked because if the Indian batsmen, rightly regarded as the best players of spin in the world, successfully take to Warne as they have in the past, then Australia will be without a major plank in its armoury.

On face value there are two sets of figures which are of concern. The first is Warne's analysis against India. In eight Tests he has managed just 19 wickets at a cost of 58 runs apiece. While this suggests India's might against spin, particularly with the world's best batsman, Sachin Tendulkar, there are significant mitigating circumstances.

Firstly Warne made his debut against India as an under-prepared `rolly polly' kid, claiming 1-228 in two Tests, when he was barely ready to play for Victoria.

Secondly, the hiding he suffered along with all the other Australian bowlers on the previous tour three years ago was not a true reflection of how he bowled. Tour statistics show that Warne claimed 10 wickets at 54 while off-spinner Gavin Robertson was Australia's leading wicket-taker with 12 wickets at 34.

However, almost every time the Indian batsmen stepped up the tempo, captain Mark Taylor was forced to remove Robertson from the attack and use Warne to soak up the pressure.

He was also the victim of some flying Indian starts. With Glenn McGrath and Jason Gillespie both missing through injury and Paul Reiffel breaking down in the first Test because of a shoulder strain, Warne did not have the comfort zone of the pace bowlers creating early pressure.

Warne was also bowling with an injured shoulder which required major surgery and kept him out of the game at international level for almost eight months. It is a minor miracle that Warne played again at all given that the same problem has finished the careers of baseball pitchers but he took a long time to return to anything like his best.

Even now their are lingering questions about how much fizz has been taken out of his bowling. Under his first two captains, Allan Border and Mark Taylor, Warne had a bowling average in the mid 20s. In 16 Tests under Steve Waugh it is now above 32.

This may also have something to do with Waugh's significant change of philosophy. If he won the toss Taylor would bat first under almost all circumstances, even on some particularly difficult wickets, and back his players to score enough runs so Warne could bowl Australia to victory on wearing wickets.

However on the West Indian tour two years ago, with Warne still recovering full strength in his shoulder, the theory did not work and Waugh was forced to drop his then vice-captain for the last Test before Australia scrambled out of the series 2- 2.

One of Waugh's great regrets on that tour was his failure to bowl first in Jamaica having just dismissed the West Indies for 51 to win the first Test in Trinidad. It is highly unlikely that Waugh will ever contemplate bowling first on this tour, with grassless Indian wickets becoming more difficult as the match goes on.

Of more immediate concern to Waugh may be the lack of opportunities which have been available to his top order over the past month or so. Bizarre programming has meant that Michael Slater, Matthew Hayden and Justin Langer, who are not in the one- day team, have played no first class cricket since the fifth Test in early January.

They have had just a handle of one-day games for either their state or Australia A, hardly ideal preparation for cricket's toughest tour. At least the trio will have two tour matches to acclimatise before the first Test in Mumbai (Bombay) late this month.

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