Time not yet ripe for talks with Pak.?

By Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI, FEB. 10. The latest incident of jehadi violence, attack on the police control room in Srinagar yesterday, is being evaluated in the context of the larger debate on whether or not the time is ripe to initiate a dialogue with Pakistan. The Vajpayee Government is seized of the approaching deadline of February 26, when the current ``ceasefire'' in Jammu and Kashmir should come to an end.

It is conceded among senior officials that Friday's attack could probably be attributed to the lowering of guard, as a consequence of the general ambience of the ``ceasefire''. Even though it is understood that a ceasefire or no ceasefire, the terrorist always has the advantage of surprise, it is nonetheless realised that the attack on the police headquarters will be used by the ``realists'' to press their point of view that any further extension of the ceasefire will be counter-productive.

The Chief Minister, Dr. Farooq Abdullah, has been far from enthusiastic about the ceasefire, and the attack on what he prefers to call ``my force'' will embolden him to question the ceasefire route. The Chief Minister apparently cites the pre and post-ceasefire figures to his advantage: civilian casualties in the first 58 days before the ceasefire added up to 145, and this figure has gone up to 182 in the first 58 days after the ceasefire.

The rise in the death of civilians has created its own political pressures, and even the BJP has not been able to take a sanguine view. The BJP leadership keeps talking loudly and publicly against any extension of the ceasefire. However, it goes unreported that there has been marked decline in the number of deaths of security personnel: 120 in the 58 days before the ceasefire, and 62 after the first 58 days of the ceasefire. In fact, the overall toll has come down from 575 deaths in the pre- ceasefire phase, to 348 deaths in the 58 days after the ceasefire.

On the other hand, those who favour the extension of the ceasefire are reluctant to reward Gen. Pervez Musharraf's tactics of blackmail: talk to us or we will increase the violence. Even the pro-extension voices do not buy the Pakistani argument that the jehadi groups are beyond Islamabad's control. ``The jehadis do not manufacture their guns; somebody has to provide them logistics and infrastructural support,'' argues an official. The Pakistani leader's attempt to suggest that the Indian Prime Minister was surrounded by hawks has not been appreciated, and is being put down to Gen. Musharraf's lack of experience of international diplomacy.

However, developments at the All-Party Hurriyat Conference's scheduled executive meeting in Srinagar on Monday would be watched closely. The Centre may finally decide to clear the passports for a Hurriyat delegation should the executive agree on an agenda for the proposed delegation. For example, the Centre may find it rather difficult to delay further the passports for the Hurriyat delegation if the executive were to give the delegates a mandate to pursue a ``peace agenda'' in Pakistan.

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