Fine-tuning a peace agenda

THE PSYCHOLOGICAL TUSSLE between the Sri Lankan President, Ms. Chandrika Kumaratunga, and the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) over a peace agenda, which she had first unveiled several years ago, seems to be entering a sensitive new phase now. Running high at this juncture are some deep concerns among the Sri Lankans about the state of their economy, which has for long borne the consequences of the internal conflict between the LTTE and the military. The impact of the fluctuating international oil prices on the domestic market and the move by the Sri Lankan authorities to allow their currency to find its level can be seen as the new context now for a possible peace offensive by her. Yet, with a characteristic finesse for crisis management, Ms. Kumaratunga has reportedly left the LTTE in no doubt that she will not choose any soft option in the quest for peace. Firmly ruled out at this stage is a cessation of the military's armed engagement with the LTTE in the absence of any credible indication by the latter to enter into talks with Colombo on the modalities of a peace settlement within the explicit parameters of Sri Lanka's indivisibility as a state. In her reckoning, a dialogue with the LTTE will be worthwhile in the present circumstances only if the organisation were to agree to hold time-specific talks on substantive issues. Wanting to steer clear of any trap that the LTTE might wish to lay in the guise of peaceful intentions, Ms. Kumaratunga says her administration is no less prepared for a sustained military showdown if that be necessary. Given her enduring political vision that favours a fair deal for Sri Lanka's minority Tamils, her firmness of such sweeping magnitude cannot be mistaken for inflexible hawkishness.

Ms. Kumaratunga is now reported to have taken the line that the LTTE's latest decision to extend its ``unilateral ceasefire'', which was first announced as being effective from last Christmas, is traceable to a combination of factors. Besides the ``pressure'' of the Sri Lankan military's ongoing operations, the LTTE is said to be smarting under the critical gaze of the British Government, which has been thoroughly briefed by Colombo about the separatist outfit's ``terrorist'' methods. The LTTE operates an office in London. The Interpol's ``red alert'' concerning the LTTE leader, Mr. Velupillai Prabhakaran, is also cited on behalf of official Colombo as a transparent rationale of the LTTE's ``truce'' overtures. Colombo's impressionistic profile of a ``truce''-seeking LTTE is to be evaluated against the organisation's portrayal of its own new posture. By addressing a key aspect of Ms. Kumaratunga's rejection of its first truce offer last month, the LTTE has now clarified that Norway, the current external interlocutor on the Sri Lankan scene, has been asked to convey the latest decision regarding `truce extension' to Colombo. It is in this context that Norway's next move will be watched with interest.

With Ms. Kumaratunga reassuring the Sri Lankans in a televised phone-in session that the economic problems will be addressed and that there are some signs of a ``fair response'' from the LTTE to her proposals, the mainstream Opposition United National Party (UNP) is no less being put to the test. While the Opposition has in a legitimate fashion brought the economy into a sharp focus at this time, a measure of the UNP's statesmanship will be how well it can advance the nation's peace agenda. For a variety of reasons, the UNP stood second to the Kumaratunga-led People's Alliance in the recent parliamentary poll, although the gap between the two was very narrow indeed. But this existential reality itself should suffice to impel the two sides to break the logjam in their stalled discussions over a constitutional settlement of inter-related issues concerning the Sri Lankan polity. An argument in the Sri Lankan Tamil political circles is that any agreement between the LTTE and Colombo may somehow need to be a devolution-plus package. But the mainstream parties will first need to revive their consultations.

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