People power prevails

The new President, Ms. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, has the right `academic' credentials but running a country like the Philippines will not be easy, writes AMIT BARUAH.

JOSEPH ESTRADA is history. The actor has taken his final bow. On January 20, Mr. Estrada was swept out of office by a combination of mass political power and full- throated support to the people on the streets by the military. The Philippines President, elected to office in 1998 by the highest-ever vote, had to leave with four years to go - a shadow of his former self - tainted by grave allegations of corruption.

The Vice-President, Ms. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, was sworn in amidst thunderous approval from a massive crowd at the Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (EDSA) ``shrine'' in Manila, the site of the ``People Power'' revolt in February 1986 against the hated dictator, Ferdinand Marcos. From January 17 onwards, when it became clear that the impeachment trial of Mr. Estrada had been reduced to a farce by Senators loyal to him, the crowds began gathering at the EDSA. While many have argued about the ``class composition'' of the crowds, there is little doubt that the military acted to desert Mr. Estrada because the people in the streets left them with little choice.

As Ms. Arroyo moves to consolidate her power and appoint new Ministers (she has retained the Defence Secretary, Mr. Orlando Mercado, and the military chief, Gen. Angelo Reyes, who defected with dramatic effect on January 19), the debate on the events leading to Mr. Estrada's ouster continues. Press reports in Manila have spoken of some kind of a ``deal'' being hammered out by Ms. Arroyo's supporters with the Estrada camp on January 19 that he could continue till Wednesday, January 24. However, the Arroyo camp moved the Supreme Court in the early hours of January 20, and the Court moved swiftly to declare the position of the President ``vacant'' leading the way to the Vice-President's elevation.

In a statement before leaving the President's palace, Mr. Estrada said he had ``strong and serious doubts'' about Ms. Arroyo's takeover. ``I do not wish to be a factor that will prevent the restoration of unity and order in our civil society,'' he said, adding that he would ``live and die'' in the Philippines. It would appear that by ``leaving'' and not ``resigning'', Mr. Estrada hopes to have some bargaining chips vis- a-vis likely prosecution on corruption charges in the weeks and months ahead. Already, Mr. Estrada has been barred from going abroad and his bank accounts frozen. Even if the former President does mount a legal challenge against his ouster, the Courts are unlikely to provide him any relief given the clear ruling of the Supreme Court.

It is clear that the Supreme Court acted in a ``hurry'', becoming, after the military, a key ally in paving the ``constitutional path'' to secure Mr. Estrada's quick departure from office. The Court did not hear Mr. Estrada or his lawyers when they declared the post of President ``vacant''.

But then, for the thousands of people demonstrating at the EDSA, the end result was what counted - they were able to force the President out. Many have objected to the theory that it was the ``Generals'' who forced Mr. Estrada out. A newspaper columnist, Ms. Rinci Jimenez-David, put it graphically: ``Yes, I wish those danged generals had come out early enough, putting their careers and lives on the line, the same way humble, ordinary men and women, a majority of them below age 30, risked their careers, studies, income and health to be counted.''

``Where were the retired and active generals, now claiming credit for their constitutional coup that they say actually led to Erap's (Mr. Estrada's nickname) ouster... and if they were going to move regardless, why did these generals have to wait and let us spend three tiring days on our feet, shouting ourselves hoarse, subsisting on fish balls and pissing on sidewalks? I mean, what kind of coup it is when you start moving only when everything's over but the shouting?''

There is little doubt that many Filipinos were sick and tired of a President, whose personal life made more news than his Presidential actions. They are happy at having got Ms. Arroyo, but she is beholden to two former Presidents - Ms. Corazon Aquino and Mr. Fidel Ramos - who pitched in to get Mr. Estrada out.

The new President is also in debt to the Roman Catholic Church, which played a key role in getting people together. While few can disagree in principle with the contention that the way out for Mr. Estrada should have been the constitutional one, the events of ``People Power-II'' hold major lessons for his successors.

Ms. Arroyo is a member of the blue-blooded elite, Mr. Estrada was the quintessential populist politician, who promised to do things for the poor, but could not deliver much.

The President has the right ``academic'' credentials, but running a country like the Philippines will not be an easy task. The right sounds have been made, but the menace of cronyism and corruption will take a long time to remove.

The crucial issue is: will the new administration adopt the correct approach to these issues or will a new set of cronies replace the old ones? The Filipino people and the rest of South East Asia will be watching closely.

For many in the region, the turmoil in the streets of Manila points to larger turbulence in the region. It will be up to Ms. Arroyo and her team to convince others that change is good for the people and the economy, for democracy and good governance.

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