Ready for the worst, hoping for the best

Moscow is bracing itself for tough, but hopefully productive dealings with the new Republican Administration, writes VLADIMIR RADYUHIN.

WITH LESS than a week to go before the U.S. President-elect, Mr. George W. Bush, is sworn in, Moscow is bracing itself for tough, but hopefully productive dealings with the new Republican Administration.

Mr. Bush's cold-eyed foreign policy team has signalled that Washington will adopt a hard line on Russia. Ms. Condoleezza Rice, National Security Adviser and an expert on Russia, has promised to break with the Democrats ``failed'' policy of trying to engage Russia and pursue American interests without hectoring and bluster. The new Defence Secretary, Mr. Donald Rumsfeld, and the Secretary of State, General Colin L. Powell, are both ardent supporters of deploying a National Missile Defence, vehemently opposed by Russia and China.

Yet, Moscow hopes to hammer out a constructive, if stiffer, relationship with the Bush administration. The Russian President, Mr. Vladimir Putin, said he did not expect relations with America to deteriorate. ``My analysis of modern history shows that when Republicans were heading the U.S. administration, U.S.-Soviet relations were not harmed,'' he said. ``We always managed to find a common language with the Republicans.''

Analysts recall that it was during Republican presidencies that detente began (under Mr. Richard Nixon) and the Cold War ended (under Mr. Ronald Reagan). Those examples, of course, date back to a time when the Soviet Union was a power to reckon with. The new Bush Administration dismisses Russia as a declining power with rusting nuclear stockpiles. The Republicans, who traditionally rely on balance of power politics, may be even less inclined to take Russian interests and concerns into consideration than the Clinton Administration.

Hence, under Mr. Putin, Moscow has vigorously pushed to establish new and revive old alliances and relationships that should re- establish Russia as a world player. Russia has cemented strategic tie-ups with India and China, moved to reopen defence cooperation with Iran, Libya and Cuba, and revitalised its policy in Europe.

As it prepares to deal with the new U.S. administration, Moscow pins hopes on the trademark pragmatism of the Republicans. It is felt that Mr. Putin and Mr. Bush, both pragmatic leaders, can reach a better understanding on the basis of upholding their own national interests than the romantics, Mr. Boris Yeltsin and Mr. Bill Clinton, did in stressing common liberal values.

Both sides have emphasised the importance of the strategic arms agenda for their relations. ``We intend without delay to start a serious dialogue with the new American administration on the entire range of disarmament issues, including the retention of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM),'' the Russian Foreign Minister, Mr. Igor Ivanov, said in a New Year interview.

Analysts believe that agreement is possible even on the thorny issue of the NMD, which Washington wants to build to protect America from possible attack by so-called ``rogue states.'' Moscow says American fears are exaggerated and has threatened to walk out of all arms accords with Washington if the latter scraps the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. At the same time Russia has kept the door open for compromise. Even before a winner emerged in the U.S. presidential race, Mr. Putin agreed to examine all issues related to the ABM treaty, which the U.S. wants to amend to lift a ban on missile defences, while Russia's strategic rocket force commander suggested that Moscow could live with the NMD if its deployment was compensated by proportionate cuts in the U.S. offensive capability to preserve the strategic balance.

Mr. Putin has put forward a novel approach to strategic arms control as well. He proposed that further reductions in Russian and U.S. nuclear arsenals to the level of 1,500 warheads for each side could be carried out either together, through traditional negotiated treaties, or in unilateral cuts. This initiative tallies well with Mr. Bush's election campaign promise to go for unilateral nuclear arms reductions.

Russia is also encouraged by indications that the Bush administration may be less interventionist in hotspots around the globe than Mr. Clinton has been. Moscow, which furiously opposed the U.S.-led NATO strikes against Yugoslavia, cheered Ms. Rice's criticism of the American involvement in the Balkans and welcomed Mr. Bush's suggestion that the U.S. should pull out of the Balkans altogether.

Moscow is hoping a more isolationist U.S. will be less eager to push for NATO expansion into Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union and will slow down its push for influence in the former Soviet republics, which Russia regards as a zone of its vital interests.

In the final analysis, Russia will stand to gain from the change of guard in the White House, said Mr. Sergei Karaganov, a political scientist. The Bush policy will be more realistic toward Russia. The two countries will not be adversaries, but will not try to be allies either.

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