U.S. policy on W. Asia may focus on oil

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), DEC. 15. The Bush family's return to the White House is likely to herald the return of certain old West Asian hands to the centre of U.S. foreign policy. For the countries and peoples of West Asia, this would be a mixed blessing. Foremost among the changes is that ``Big Oil'' will probably regain its pre-eminence as the main engine of U.S. policy towards West Asia and North Africa.

In the firm of Bush-Cheney-Powell that seems all set to take office by the end of January, the senior partner is of course the least experienced man, not only in national affairs, but also in the petroleum politics that is so crucial to West Asia. After all, Mr. Richard Cheney and Gen. Colin Powell were the central figures in ensuring that the ``free world's access to vital energy resources'' was sustained the last time it was subjected to a serious politico-military challenge. Mr George W. Bush might not have the direct connection to the U.S. oil industry that his father and his Vice-President-to-be have had. But then, a Texas Governor's links to the oil industry cannot be too far behind that of a senior executive of Halliburtons (the oil-industry servicing firm) as Mr. Cheney was till he resigned to fight the elections.

What the firm is faced with foremost is the unfinished business of Iraq and its President, Mr. Saddam Hussein. Mr. George Bush Senior and his Defence Secretary and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff have come under some criticism for not having ``finished off'' Mr. Hussein when they had the chance. On the obverse, Republicans in the U.S. Congress have been quite persistent in their criticism that the Clinton-Gore team has allowed Mr. Hussein to slowly but steadily wriggle free of the shackles placed upon him. But the efforts mounted at the initiatives of both the Congress and the administration over the last eight years to build up a domestic Iraqi opposition against Mr. Hussein have proved a dismal failure.

While the other part of the twin-bladed effort to squeeze Mr. Hussein out of office - the harsh economic embargo imposed on Iraq - has caused untold misery to the Iraqi people, its impact on the longevity of the Iraqi regime has been virtually nil. At the same time, the global oil industry has reason to be confident that it has discovered the strength to resist Mr. Hussein's ability to convulse the market. Even in the current hard situation where oil prices are riding at levels not seen for years, Mr. Hussein might be able to effectuate slight fluctuations in prices. But it is fairly obvious that Iraq too needs some stability in the oil market simply because it is desperate for hard cash.

Apart from the question of need, the next U.S. administration would find it far more difficult than the earlier Bush administration to keep in place the mechanism whereby the squeeze on Iraq was applied. Allies in the Gulf crisis such as Syria and Turkey already have flourishing, if somewhat clandestine, ties with Iraq and Saudi Arabia the regional lynch- pin of the anti- Iraq coalition has become increasingly sensitive to the domestic outrage at the sufferings of the Iraqi people. Under these circumstances, would the incoming Bush administration base its Iraq policy on an ideological approach?

Iran, the other country at which the US's ``dual containment'' policy was conceived during the earlier Bush administration, is at a crossroads. Mr. George W. Bush, whether compassionate or not, still describes himself as a conservative and that probably precludes a chance that he will respond to the Iranian President, Mr. Mohammed Khatami's call for a ``dialogue of civilisations'' with any degree of alacrity.

Even Mr. Bill Clinton did not gush with a response to Mr. Khatami's overtures. In any event, the Khatami Presidency and his reform movement are currently caught up in a life or death struggle and it does not appear likely that the Bush administration will, or will even need to, make any moves till Iran votes again in presidential polls in the coming May.

Everyone will, of course, be watching to see what Mr. George W. Bush and his administration will do on the Israeli- Palestinian imbroglio. Here again, fast moves are unlikely because they have seen how little all the commitment and energy that Mr. Clinton invested in this question has wrought. Once again, the Republican administration is likely to be more sensitive to the Muslim populated oil rich countries of West Asia.

If this brings about some balance in the administration's treatment of the Israelis and the Palestinians, the Arab world will have some reason to be satisfied.

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