A referendum on peace talks: Barak

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), DEC. 10. The Israeli Prime Minister, Mr. Ehud Barak, today submitted his resignation to the President, Mr. Moshe Katsav.

Under Israel's election law, this resignation necessitates the holding of elections to choose a new Prime Minister within 60 days but by itself does not necessitate a fresh parliamentary poll. However, it appears likely that parliamentary elections will also be held since the Knesset is in the process of dissolving itself.

Mr. Barak has said that he will treat the Prime Ministerial election as a referendum on the negotiating position he has taken with the Palestinians though it is not likely that he will have an agreement before he faces his electorate.

It is difficult to understand the Israeli electoral law. The Prime Minister and Parliament are elected separately. But since the Prime Ministerial candidates have to be members of the Israeli Parliament, or Knesset, they have to be on the ballot for both the polls. However, should a Prime Minister resign then it is not necessary that the Knesset also be simultaneously dissolved. If the Knesset is dissolved, then both parliamentary as well as special Prime Ministerial elections have to be held.

There is a further complication. If a sitting Prime Minister resigns and calls for a special Prime Ministerial election, then only members of the existing Knesset can contest it.

The strongest candidate Mr. Barak could face would have been the former Prime Minister, Mr. Benjamin Netanyahu (who has a massive lead over Mr. Barak in the opinion polls). But Mr. Netanyahu is not a member of the Knesset since he resigned his seat soon after the 1998 elections.

Mr. Barak's most likely competitor would be the current leader of the Likud party, Mr. Ariel Sharon. Though Mr. Sharon currently has a narrow lead over Mr. Barak in the opinion polls, there is very little likelihood of his retaining this lead once the campaign starts.

Almost everyone is convinced that Mr. Barak tendered his resignation, and opted for the special Prime Ministerial election, so as to ensure that he would face the weaker of his two potential opponents.

However, Mr. Barak has said that he would have no objections if parliamentary elections are held at the same time as the special Prime Ministerial election. If the elections are held simultaneously, Mr. Netanyahu would be able to take part in the Prime Ministerial contest. The Knesset has already passed a bill calling for fresh parliamentary polls at its first hearing and since most members reportedly still support the dissolution of Parliament it is very likely that the two polls will be held at the same time.

While Mr. Barak may not be able to neutralise Mr. Netanyahu, he has effectively scotched any chance of a challenge from within his own left-wing camp. Other left-wing leaders like the Knesset Speaker, Mr. Avraham Burg, and the Interior Minister, Mr. Haim Ramon, who were considered as possible contenders, are not likely to queer the pitch for Mr. Barak in the two months that he has to meet the challenge from the right-wing.

Mr. Barak has said that he would ask his electorate to consider the vote as a referendum on the manner in which he has conducted, and proposes to conduct, negotiations with the Palestinians.

If Mr. Barak believes that he can go to his people and ask for their approval amid the worst clashes between Israelis and Palestinians that have taken place since 1948 then Israel's most decorated soldier is an even braver man than those who gave him the medals thought he was. But then, Mr. Barak had few other choices.

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Section  : International
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