Chopping and changing

It is not so clear whether Mr. Mori has drawn a protective ring around himself or he has been encircled by the party bosses. F.J.KHERGAMVALA on the Cabinet reshuffle in Japan.

JAPAN'S PRIMEMINISTER, Mr. Yoshiro Mori, this week reshuffled his Cabinet. This was born of necessity in that a month later the entire Central Government is being reorganised, purportedly to make it lean, if not mean.

It is not the fact of the reshuffle but the logic of the ``who's who'' of it that has generated much comment. Mr. Mori, 62, has retained the former Prime Minister, Mr. Kiichi Miyazawa, 81, and also brought in Mr. Ryutaro Hashimoto, 63, who was Prime Minister until July 1998. Additionally, Mr. Masahiko Koumura, former Foreign Minister, and Mr. Yohei Kono, the present chief diplomat, are in too. Mr. Shizuka Kamei, a former policeman, is to be kept on as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's Policy Research Council.

These persons, including Mr. Mori himself, are all heads of factions. The LDP is not a ideological monolith but is, as it has always been, a coalition of factions continuously engaged in trade-offs and perpetually jockeying for power. It was no different this time. The Hashimoto faction, which is the largest, demanded and got three seats. So too did the Eto-Kamei faction. The fact that Mr. Hashimoto himself chose to enter the Cabinet and not send somebody else from the faction is reason for speculation about the longevity of the Mori Government.

From January 6, the 22 existing Ministries and agencies will be consolidated into one Cabinet office, 10 Ministries, one agency and one commission. This means that the pie to be shared in the inter-factional grab is smaller. Other than the Prime Minister, there are now just 17 ministerial or agency seats. A fact that makes the pie even smaller is that the LDP rules at the Centre through a coalition with the New Komeito and the New Conservative Party. They too get two seats.

Each ministerial job has its own power and potential to dispense favours, collect funds and influence votes. Each faction also attempts to enhance its own strength, not just in terms of raw numbers but the portfolio it gets. In this week's reshuffle, the clear losers were Mr. Koichi Kato, head of the Kato faction and Mr. Taku Yamasaki. Mr. Kato, supported by Mr. Yamasaki, led the attempted rebellion against the Mori Government last month.

The Kato loyalists do not get any seats, either in the Council of Ministers or among the top three in the LDP's upper ranks. Instead, that part of the 45-strong Kato faction, mostly elders, which was loyal to Mr. Mori was rewarded. They include Mr. Miyazawa. Therefore, the LDP is trying to break up the Kato faction, a fact that was one of the causes of the anti-Mori rebellion. The LDP not only never changes, it does not even care to change its spots.

The inclusion of two former Prime Ministers and all other faction heads minus the Kato loyalists points clearly to Mr. Mori rewarding those who stood by him last month. That is obvious. What is not so evident is whether Mr. Mori has drawn a protective ring around himself, or whether he has been encircled by the party's bosses who have positioned themselves to compete with each other, in case Mr. Mori stumbles again.

There have been commentaries that the Hashimoto faction has positioned itself to replace Mr. Mori. Lending weight to this speculation is the fact that the LDP's main power broker, Mr. Nonaka, who actually led the Mori Government defence against the Kato rebellion, resigned in the week before the reshuffle. He belongs to the Hashimoto faction and like the late Prime Minister, Noboru Takeshita, has positioned himself to pull the strings from behind.

He is also balanced, and crouched as if set to pounce, on both scenarios. He can show distance from a falling Prime Minister because officially he has no position now, either in Government or in the party. Thus, he is also unshackled. Yet, because every party donor knows where the power lies, all money passes through Mr. Nonaka. That money could be put to use for his faction.

It is also quite possible that Mr. Mori might feel safe that he has roped in people to support him with the unstated intention of putting handcuffs on anyone attempting an overthrow. Conversely, the faction leaders feel secure being in proximity to the locus of power, a position from where they can plot their moves. One way or the other, the denial of positions to the young and fresh minds has occasioned criticism.

Mr. Mori might feel he has portrayed to the public an air of continuity and stability. But, the enormous public support for the Kato rebellion was eloquent comment that the public wants boldness and reform, not a party that has a leader whose vision extends only until next summer's elections to half the Upper House seats.

Even the Yomiuri Shimbun, the party's favourite organ, said, ``there has never been another age when Cabinets were as superficial as they are now''. The paper dubbed the Cabinet, ``weighty yet shallow''.

On the day of the reshuffle, Kyodo News published a poll showing Mr. Mori's approval rate at just 18.8 per cent, and the disapproval rate at 75 per cent.

The leader of an economy where the gross domestic product that has shown just a 0.2 per cent rise over the past three months needs much more than those ratings.

Other than the resignation of Mr. Nonaka, on the eve of announcing the impending change, Mr. Mori suffered another blow. His Economic Planning Agency chief, Mr. Taiichi Sakaiya, respected by the public for his honest disclosures about the economic health, refused Mr. Mori's offer to serve, in any capacity, in the new Government.

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Section  : Opinion
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