'Militants may strike in a big way around Dec. 14'

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, DEC. 7. In updating its appraisal of the ground situation in Kashmir, the Government is factoring in a possible showdown with pan-Islamic insurgents around the middle of this month.

According to highly-placed sources in the Government, the Army is expected to brief the Defence Minister, Mr. George Fernandes, on the Kashmir situation within the next couple of days. Mr. Fernandes, on his part, is later expected to convey the military appraisal to the Prime Minister, Mr. A.B. Vajpayee.

Sources apprehend that militants might strike in a big way in Kashmir around December 14. According to them, a possible spurt in violence may be timed with the 17th day of Ramzan, which is significant in Islamic history and thought. It was on the 17th day of Ramzan, which this year falls on December 14, when the decisive battle of Al-badr was fought. This cleared the way for the establishment of full control over Mecca by forces under Prophet Mohammed.

Despite the expected drop in infiltration, violence in the Valley is unlikely to subside in the next one month, the sources said. Keen to tarnish the Centre's peace initiative, the insurgents are likely to take responsibility even for minor incidents, so that militancy could acquire an exaggerated profile. The pan-Islamic insurgents or `jehadis' who form a large chunk of an estimated 1,600 militants operating in the Valley alone are expected to spearhead this campaign. Among the `jehadis', the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) has acquired prominence recently. The LeT is the military wing of the Markaz Dawat wal Irshad, an organisation committed to spread `jehad'. Founded by three ``academics'' - Prof. Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, Mr. Zafar Iqbal and Mr. Abdul Azam - the Markaz is headquartered at Muridke, around 50 km. north of Lahore. Spread over an area of around 80 hectares, it reportedly runs over 30 ``schools'' which train an estimated 5,000 ``students.''

Analysts here cite two key reasons for the unabated militant violence in Kashmir. Fresh incidents of militancy are meant to gauge the Government's political will to persist with the ``peace process''. Despite the provocations such as the Anantnag blasts, the Centre has so far stood its ground.

And violence in Kashmir may be directed at straining civil- military relations. Repeated targeting of security forces, who have been told not to undertake offensive missions in response, may be aimed at raising friction between the security the political establishments.

Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Section  : National
Previous : Pak. awaiting Indian response to talks offer
Next     : Nambiar meets Advani