A measured engagement

INDIA'S NEW INITIATIVE to engage Mr. Saddam Hussein's Iraq in a measured but substantive manner is as much an exercise in some enlightened economic diplomacy as an attempt at upholding autonomy in foreign policy. The latest agreement, with two distinctive facets of interaction with Baghdad, provides for Indian wheat supplies to Iraq in exchange for its crude oil. This marks New Delhi's first decisive step in reorienting its ties with Baghdad since the end of the Gulf War in 1991. It is an eloquent testimony to India's empathy for the suffering people of Iraq. But the accord, given the limits of its bilateral character, can be no masterplan for rescuing the ordinary Iraqis from the trap of sanctions which the U.N. Security Council has kept in force for nearly a decade since the U.S.-masterminded eviction of Mr. Hussein's military forces from Kuwait. In simple but profound terms, the cumulative effect of the sustained U.N. embargo is an unmitigated humanitarian disaster for the Iraqi population. It is in this grim context that India will extend help to Iraq under the explicit terms of the U.N.'s prevalent `oil-for-food' programme. This is a U.N. concession to the Iraqi people so that they can receive food and other essentials of livelihood in barter for the oil that Mr. Hussein's regime could export through an internationally-monitored window.

In addition to this transfer of aid within the modified framework of the U.N. sanctions regime, New Delhi has now said it will consult the Security Council on a separate issue of benefit to both India and Iraq. New Delhi's objective is to explore ways of importing additional crude from Iraq in the context of the cross- currents on the international oil market that had already affected India. Referring to Iraq as an oil source in this situation, India hopes to invoke a specific provision of the U.N. Charter. A planned move of this magnitude by New Delhi seems to have been a factor in Iraq's new hopes for a long-term ``strategic'' relationship with India. However, two questions must first be sorted out. The outcome of India's proposed discussions with the Security Council will be determined by not only the facts of the case but also the diplomatic compulsions of the U.S., in particular, in dealing with Mr. Hussein in the short run.

On a different plane, Baghdad may find it necessary to wait until its equation with the U.N. is redefined so that the potential scope of a meaningful India-Iraq ``strategic'' tie-up can be adequately considered in brain-storming sessions in the first place. Impinging on this new bilateral equation will be New Delhi's current diplomatic exercise, undertaken in conjunction with Teheran, in identifying ways to transport Iranian natural gas to India through or outside Pakistan. More importantly, much will also depend on Iraq's own world view after the sanctions on it are lifted. A diplomatic spin-off effect of the current India- Iraq dialogue is that New Delhi has now joined the ranks of an emerging morality club of sorts consisting of Russia and China, which seem keen to expose the horrific miscarriage of the U.N.'s anti-Hussein embargo. A pertinent point is that the countries advocating a humane exit strategy for consideration by the Security Council in regard to its sanctions on Iraq are also the ones favouring the emergence of a multipolar global political order at this stage. Russia has of course made clear that it is not thinking of a tripartite alliance involving India and China. However, the three have been able to identify some commonalities, not amounting to a partnership as of now, in quest of a more balanced international political dispensation. Their views on Iraq will be of some direct interest to the next U.S. administration too.

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