The going is good, for now

Vojislav Kostounica's star continues to rise both at home and among European leaders. But, he could quickly become a victim of his own success, especially if he fails to meet the high expectations in Yugoslavia, writes VAIJU NARAVANE.

YUGOSLAVIA'S NEW President, Mr. Vojislav Kostounica, was undoubtedly the star of the just-concluded Balkan summit held in the Croatian capital, Zagreb. But while his star continues to rise both at home and among European leaders, he could quickly become a victim of his own success, especially if he fails to meet the very high expectations his election has created within Yugoslavia.

At home, Mr. Kostunica is currently the hostage of the former President, Mr. Slobodan Milosevic's Serbian Socialist Party (SPS) which has refused to allow the sacking of Mr. Rade Markovic, head of Yugoslavia's secret services, believed by many to be involved in several high-profile, gangland-style killings in Serbia and Montenegro over the past two years. In his attempt to govern by consensus, Mr. Kostounica has created a Government which is by definition paralysed and which will be unable to either draw up a programme of urgently-needed reform and reconstruction or take any kind of emergency measures to improve Yugoslavia's extremely precarious economic situation.

The new transition Government of the Yugoslav federation is essentially composed of three elements. They are the 18-party alliance known as the Serbian Democratic Opposition (SDO) which brought Mr. Kostounica to power, the SPS which, by extension also includes the Montenegrin Popular Socialist Party or SNP, and the Serbian Renewal Party (SRP) led by the maverick politician, Mr. Vuk Draskovic.

The four key Ministries of justice, interior, information and finance are jointly run by the three parties so that there are effectively three Interior Ministers, three Justice Ministers and so on. The SDO has nine of 16 Cabinet posts. The post of Prime Minister and six other portfolios have gone to the SNP, but the real power, if any, is exercised by Vice-Prime Minister, Mr. Miroljub Labus, a close aide of Mr. Kostounica. But, as always in Yugoslavia, there is much more than meets the eye.

While the SPS quickly gave in to demands for the resignation of the Chief Justice and the Chief Prosecutor, both of whom were accused of trying to fudge the election results in favour of Mr. Milosevic, it has remained firmly against the sacking of the chiefs of police and the secret service. Mr. Kostunica's supporters claim that in the weeks preceding the legislative elections scheduled for December 23, Mr. Milosevic's supporters are further tightening their hold over the police and the judiciary.

All three Ministers must agree for a decision to be taken. Mr. Bozo Prelevic, Interior Minister from the SDO, who is theoretically in charge of the secret services openly admitted that he had no power to stop the secret service chief from destroying sensitive files. ``I am responsible for the SDB (Yugoslav secret service) but I am powerless to replace the police generals.'' .

Mr. Markovic has reportedly threatened SDO and SRP Interior Ministers after they attempted to order an enquiry into the murder of a noted opposition journalist, Slavko Curujva, in April 1999. Mr. Markovic is widely believed to have been involved in the killing. He was also allegedly responsible for the kidnapping of the former Serbian President, Mr. Ivan Stambolic, on August 25.

The SDO and SRP Ministers, faced with SPS intransigence, have threatened to boycott Government proceedings saying the socialists should henceforth be held responsible for ``any problems which might occur''. But Mr. Kostunica would like to move slowly, at least during the month prior to the legislative elections. ``The hasty firing of persons at the head of the Serbian police and army are undoubtedly contrary to the interests of the state because they will inevitably destabilise the country's institutions,'' he said.

Croatians are particularly incensed by the fact that European Governments, which sanctioned them because of President Franjo Tudjman's despotic 13-year rule, refusing much-needed E.U. development aid, are treating Mr. Kostunica like a prodigal son. Sanctions against Yugoslavia have already been lifted and the E.U. has promised several million dollars in aid.

However, despite the warm welcome reserved for Mr. Kostunica at the just-concluded Balkan summit in Zagreb, the E.U. message is clear: the war crimes question cannot be evaded ad infinitum. The French President, Mr. Jacques Chirac, who inaugurated the summit as the E.U.'s rotating president-in-office said that the future of the Balkan states lay within Europe. However, he underlined, as did the final declaration of the conference, that it was in everyone's interest to bring war criminals to justice. Yugoslavia has yet to hand over a single war criminal. Its three leading wanted personalities are Mr. Milosevic, and the Bosnian Serb leaders, Mr. Radovan Karazdic and General Ratko Mladic.

Mr. Kostunica faces a difficult task. Tensions in the province of Kosovo are again on the rise with growing crimes against Serbs and other minorities. Blame is being laid at the door of extremist Kosovar Albanians who fear that with Mr. Milosevic gone, their hopes for independence might evaporate. The new President will have to address the question of Serbian guilt in Kosovo. He will also have to build new bridges not only with the tiny republic of Montenegro which was on the brink of rebellion until Mr. Milosevic's defeat but with his other immediate Balkan neighbours. And he will have to address the formidable task of rebuilding Yugoslavia's shattered economy. Mr. Kostunica is known to be a conservative nationalist. Until today, he has managed to make the right noises. Will his inherent nationalism allow him to travel the road to reconciliation?

Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Section  : Opinion
Previous : Purge in Peru