Blue water prowess

RAHUL ROYCHAU-DHURY'S book, which is on the country's maritime security, analyses the importance of the seas in ensuring our economic and political well-being.

He has compiled information highlighting India's dependence on sea-based foreign trade, also focussing on the maritime dimension of energy security, revolving either around tanker borne import of crude oil and natural gas or on exploitation of off-shore oil reserves. Besides, the book highlights the projected growth of merchant shipping and the future development of ports.

The objective is to underscore the necessity of creating the means - military, political and diplomatic - to defend these assets. In doing so, he points out that an integrated view on defending the country's maritime assets and infrastructure is necessary. But for this, a national policy needs to be evolved. Its absence makes these assets vulnerable to physical attacks and undermines their efficient exploitation.

According to the author, India's dependence on imported oil and gas is heavy. In 1997-98, nearly 50 per cent of its crude requirements were imported. But this demand has risen steadily. From 59.6 million tonnes (mt) in 1991-92, it rose to 91.8 mt in the next six years. India, which is fast emerging as a major global market for petroleum products, is expected to consume 115 mt of crude in 2001-02. By 2010-11, this demand is expected to touch 200 mt. "India would become the third largest consumer of petroleum products, after China and Russia, and followed by France and the United Kingdom." Nearly 90 per cent of the imports come from the Persian Gulf, underlining India's high stakes in this region.

Besides oil, India is likely to be one of the big importers of natural gas. India, in 2001, will import Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) by ship. Construction of eight import and regasification terminals are proposed at our ports.

Commensurate with the spurt in hydrocarbon imports, oil tanker traffic to ports, especially in the energy heartland around the Kutch is expected to expand in a big way. From 3,810 oil tankers, which visited India in 1995, around 6,300 ships are likely to call in the Kandla area in the Kutch alone by 2005-06. The strategic importance, and, therefore, the vulnerability of this zone is expected to grow.

The maritime dimension of the economy is also underscored by the presence of 11 major ports and 139 operable mini/intermediate ports. From 157.60 mt in 1991-92, the volume of traffic in major ports is expected to rise to 652.61 mt in 2005-06.

Pakistan and China pose a potential threat to our maritime security. Not surprisingly, the author examines their military strengths.

Pakistan, according to the author, is qualitatively improving its naval fleet by buying three French "Agosta-90B" class submarines, maritime patrol aircraft like United States built P3C Orions and British "Amazon" class warships. The Indo-Pakistan dispute over maritime boundaries in the Sir Creek area can always trigger a possible conflict, he says.

China's naval force structure, on its part, includes one Xia- class nuclear powered submarine capable of firing ballistic missiles, five nuclear powered submarines, over 50 diesel electric boats, 18 destroyers and 35 frigates. It is expected to acquire a prominent presence in the Indian Ocean within the next 10 years.

The Indian Navy holds the key to imparting national maritime security. Without analysing in detail the Navy's strengths and weaknesses, the book gives a factual account of its existing size and power as well as its general direction of future growth.

The core of Roychaudhury's book lies in its powerful advocacy for evolving a national Maritime Security Policy (MSP-2001). An MSP, in his words, should strive to establish a comprehensive and pro- active maritime strategy for the country, under the supervision of the newly formed National Security Council (NSC) and in coordination with relevant governmental and non-governmental agencies.

His book is perhaps the first study which gives a "big picture" of all the elements related to maritime security along with their inter-connections. The arguments made are backed by the publication of impressive data, especially in areas such as energy security. As a result, the around 200-page volume turns out to be an excellent reference book on areas spanning from national shipping infrastructure to trends in China's naval power.

If there is a weakness in the book, it lies in giving insufficient weightage to the use of diplomacy as a key instrument for promoting national maritime security. Governed by a maritime security policy, the NSC, the Foreign Office, the Ministry of Defence and the Navy along with the other two defence services have to identify a common short and long term agenda which will prevent the disruption of country's sea based economic lifeline under all forseable circumstances.

ATUL ANEJA

India's Maritime Security, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Knowledge World in association with Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, p.208, Rs. 550.

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