UDF position far more comfortable

By Girish Menon

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, SEPT. 23. With electioneering for the first phase of the local bodies elections coming to an end today, the UDF goes to the polling booths in far more comfortable position that it was when the polls were notified.

The most significant aspect of the local bodies elections would not be the number of local bodies that each of the political front would capture. Rather, it would be a barometer of sorts to decide the success of their respective strategies adopted in preparation to the Assembly elections to be held in a few months time.

There are three main pre-campaign issues which are relevant. The first one is the CPI(M)'s new political line permitting local- level adjustments with Congress(I) rebels and coalition partners, particularly the IUML. The second one is the persistent charges raised by the Left election propaganda machine about the BJP- Congress(I) alliance and the third is the IUML's strategy in the current situation and the Congress(I) response to it.

The CPI(M)'s much-touted political line of local adjustments with UDF rebels and coalition partners, particularly the IUML, has fallen by the wayside. The party has been forced to remain satisfied with local alliances with the IUML in a handful of panchayats in Malappuram, Kannur and Kasaragod. When compared to the scale of the panchayat elections, these local adjustments do not indicate political quakes.

The CPI(M)'s was a weapon which nearly sliced the UDF, thanks to the factional feuds in the Congress(I). At one point of time, it appeared that the IUML would be tethered to the CPI(M)'s pen even as reports trickled from the districts about the frantic attempts for local adjustments by the IUML and the CPI(M). The timely intervention by the IUML supremo, Mr. Panakkad Sayyed Mohammedali Sihab Thangal, checked the move towards the CPI(M). But the party did admit that it had no option but to plough a lonely furrow or cobble a coalition with "independents" in those panchayats where the UDF coalition pattern collapsed under pressure of local imperatives.

The CPI(M) tactical line had been adopted mainly to force a political realignment by drawing the IUML out of the its longstanding association with the UDF. It might have been temporarily thwarted on this score. But what could be of concern to the UDF is that the new line has to some extent helped it shed its stigma vis-a-vis the Muslim community.

The IUML has already notched up quite a few political gains even before the ballot is cast for the local bodies elections. It been able to wrest concessions from both sides of the political divide through deft manoeuvers. All through, it did not lose sight of its single-minded determination of emerging as the only force in Muslim politics in Kerala.

A close examination of these local alliances outside the UDF would show that the IUML had succeeded in keeping its commitment to the UDF. Its ties outside the UDF fold, wherever it has taken place, is unlikely to give any mileage for the LDF because these have been forged on the IUML's terms.

The persistent LDF campaign that the Congress(I) and the BJP were hand in glove in the local bodies elections would be either proved or disproved conclusively in this elections. The campaign has been unleashed obviously to woo the minority communities by playing upon their fear psychosis of the BJP, which had till recently assumed an aggressive face of Hindutva. The strategy is not new and had been tried out in the previous two Parliamentary elections and a few Parliamentary by-elections.

The only difference is that so far it had been subtle, but the CPI(M) is now not averse to openly playing it up. In spite of repeated denials by the Congress(I) leadership, the LDF public address systems continue to resonate the allegation. There is no denying the fact that the CPI(M)'s new political line might have prompted the Congress(I) to make an attempt to consolidate anti- Marxist forces. The effects of the persistent attacks against the Congress(I) could end up giving a foothold to the BJP.

For the Congress(I), the local bodies elections would mean a lot. It can feel satisfied that it could hold the horse from bolting. But there are few issues it would sooner have to face up to. The Congress(I) leadership had to bend backwards to keep the IUML in good humour in several local bodies. The latter appears to be calling the shots more often than Congressmen would really like. The Congress(I) leadership could sigh in relief that factionalism did not take a menacing turn during electioneering.

As for the other election issues like the People's Plan campaign, its impact would be felt in each of the panchayats depending on the way the programmes have been implemented, because there are UDF-ruled panchayats which have done well or as badly as the LDF-ruled panchayats. Realising this, the LDF even decided to go in for separate election manifesto for each of the local bodies.

The panchayat elections would, therefore, be significant not for the victory in numbers, but of political strategy. Given the ground realities, it is highly unlikely that the present coalition would undergo any drastic restructuring.

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Section  : Southern States
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